Ultrasound-Based Risk Stratification System for the Assessment of Partially Cystic Thyroid Nodules.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a risk stratification system for the prediction of malignancy in Partially Cystic Thyroid Nodules (PCTNs).

METHODS: From January 2020 to December 2021, we retrospectively reviewed the sonography data of PCTNs patients from Hangzhou TCM Hospital, Hangzhou First People's Hospital two medical centers. The independent risk factors of malignant PCTNs were evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The nomogram prediction efficiency was assessed using Area Under the Curve (AUC) and calibration curves. To determine the clinic value of the predictive model, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was used.

RESULTS: In this retrospective study, a total of 285 patients (301 PCTNs) were enrolled, 242 nodules were benign, and 59 nodules were malignant. Younger age, hypoechoic, irregular margin and microcalcifications were found to be the independent risk factors associated with malignant PCTNs. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.860, 77.1%, and 84.7% in the training set and 0.897, 91.7%, and 87.0% in the external validation set, respectively. The total point of nomogram is greater than 161, which shows the best to predict the malignancy of PCTNs.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated that the risk stratification system for the assessment of PTCNs showed good prediction capacities.