Analysis and prediction of regrowth in benign thyroid nodules undergoing radiofrequency ablation: a retrospective study with a 5-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the 5-year follow-up results of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for benign thyroid nodules (BTNs), and construct pre- and postablation nomogram models to predict regrowth in BTNs undergoing RFA.

METHODS: According to the occurrence of regrowth, BTNs were divided into two subgroups, the regrowth group and the nonregrowth group, and the variables were compared between these two subgroups. Then, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyzes were utilized to filter the independent prognostic factors of regrowth, which then were introduced into the pre- and postablation prognostic nomograms, respectively. The discrimination powers and prediction performances of the nomograms were appraised by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration charts.

RESULTS: The 5-year mean volume reduction rate was 88.80%, with a complication rate of 0.35% (7/200). Within 5 years of follow-up, the regrowth rate was 19% (38/200). Pre- and postablation prognostic nomograms were established to predict the probability of nonregrowth at 1, 3, and 5 years after RFA. The preablation nomogram included initial volume, perinodular vascularity, and high enhancement ring. The postablation nomogram incorporated total volume, perinodular vascularity, and energy applied per volume. The area under the ROC curves and concordance index values of these models were all above 0.7, indicating that the prognostic nomograms achieved satisfactory discrimination powers and prediction performances.

CONCLUSION: RFA for BTNs has long-term efficacy and safety under the influence of key techniques. The pre- and postablation nomograms constructed in the present study might facilitate clinical decision-making before RFA and for the follow-up management after RFA.

KEY POINTS: • Perinodular vascularity, rather than intranodular vascularity was an independent predictor of regrowth, both before and after the RFA procedure. • A high enhancement ring on preablation contrast-enhanced ultrasound was an independent predictor of regrowth. • Pre- and postablation nomograms might facilitate clinical decision-making before RFA and follow-up management after RFA.