An Analysis of AUA Census Trends: Earlier Planned Retirement and Practice Pattern Changes May Exacerbate the Urology Workforce Shortage.

OBJECTIVE: To explore how changes in planned retirement age, practice setting, and physician productivity may impact the workforce shortage in urology.

METHODS: We compared data between the 2015 and 2022 American Urological Association census, a specialty-wide annual survey which collects data on demographics, practice patterns and procedures from a representative sample of US urologists. Workforce productivity was measured by the self-reported number of hours worked per week and patients seen per week. A novel formula was developed to demonstrate how planned retirement age and productivity impact the workforce's production capacity.

RESULTS: The total number of practicing urologists increased during the period from 2015 to 2022 (11,990 to 13,976), while the mean age of practicing urologists decreased slightly (55.0 to 54.5 years; p <0.002). During this period, the mean planned age of retirement for all urologists decreased from 68.9 years to 67.7 (p <0.001). Urologists in solo practice had a significantly higher planned age of retirement at 71.9 years (p <0.001) as compared to all other practice models. The number of patients seen per week for all urologists decreased from 78.7 to 72.9 (p <0.001). The amount of hours worked per week remained relatively constant between the study periods. The maximum possible number of patients seen by the workforce prior to retirement increased by only 2.4% during the study interval.

CONCLUSION: Though the US urology workforce is growing and the mean age is decreasing, decreases in planned retirement age and productivity may offset these gains and intensify the physician shortage for US urologists.