Serum bicarbonate levels and kidney outcomes in critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The interplay between serum bicarbonate levels and kidney outcomes is not fully understood. We conducted a prospective cohort study in three intensive care units (ICUs) to evaluate the association of serum bicarbonate levels with acute kidney injury (AKI) and kidney function recovery in critically ill patients.

METHODS: A prospective cohort study in three intensive care units (ICUs) was performed. The serum bicarbonate level in the first 24 h after ICU admission was categorized as low (< 22 mEq/L), normal (22-26 mEq/L), or high (> 26 mEq/L). Serum creatinine (SCr) levels according to the KDIGO AKI guideline were used for defining AKI within the first 7 days of ICU stay. At ICU admission, SCr ≥ 1.1 for women and ≥ 1.3 mg/dL for men were indicative of impaired kidney function. Mortality outcome was tracked up to 28 days, and kidney function recovery was assessed at hospital discharge.

RESULTS: A total of 2732 patients (66 ± 19 years and 55% men) were analyzed, with 32% having impaired kidney function at ICU admission. Overall, 26% of patients had low bicarbonate levels, while 32% had high bicarbonate levels. Notably, patients with preserved kidney function showed a lower prevalence of low bicarbonate levels compared to those with impaired kidney function (20% vs. 39%, p < 0.001), while higher rates were observed for high bicarbonate (35% vs. 24%, p < 0.001). Compared with patients with normal serum bicarbonate levels, those with low bicarbonate were 81% more likely to develop AKI (OR = 1.81; 95% CI 1.10-2.99), whereas those with high bicarbonate were 44% less likely (OR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.32-0.98) in the adjusted model for confounders. Neither those with high nor low serum bicarbonate levels were associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.03; 95% CI 0.68-1.56 and 0.99; 95% CI 0.68-1.42, respectively). In subgroup analysis, regardless of the kidney function at ICU admission, serum bicarbonate levels were not associated with the development of AKI and all-cause mortality. Regarding kidney function recovery, higher non-recovery rates were found for those with low bicarbonate.

CONCLUSION: In critically ill ICU patients, low bicarbonate levels were associated with the more likely development of AKI and subsequent non-recovery of kidney function, while high bicarbonate levels showed no such association. Therefore, low bicarbonate levels may be considered a risk factor for adverse kidney outcomes in critically ill patients.