Determinants of 30-day mortality of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The present study was undertaken to evaluate the determinants of acute (30-day) mortality after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in a developing country setting, and to compare these findings with those available from studies conducted in the West.

METHODS: Medical records of 146 patients admitted to a major tertiary hospital in Karachi, Pakistan between 1990 and 1991 with a diagnosis of spontaneous ICH were reviewed. The level and intensity of care provided to these patients was similar to that available at modern neurosurgical centers. The salient prognostic indicators that were studied included hypertension, pulse pressure, GCS score, neurologic deficits, and CT-scan predictors including site, size, and intraventricular spread of hemorrhage. These data were used to determine independent predictors of 30-day mortality by univariate and multivariate analysis. Additionally, 30-day survival probabilities for these outcome predictors were also computed.

RESULTS: The 30-day mortality after spontaneous ICH was 39.7%. Two-thirds of the patients had a history of hypertension. The important clinical predictors at the multivariate level included GCS score < or =8 and progressive increase in pulse pressure. The CT scan predictors included intraventricular spread of hemorrhage, ventricular enlargement, and size of the bleed. Location of the lesion did not appear to significantly influence mortality. Survival analysis showed a large clustering of deaths within the first 72 hours of hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS: The 30-day mortality rate and prognostic predictors for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage were found to be similar to those reported in the Western hemisphere. However, the correlation of incremental increase in pulse pressure with deteriorating prognosis was a new and significant finding.