A new risk calculation model for complications of hepatectomy in adults over 75.

BACKGROUND: Owing to poor organ function reserve, older adults have a high risk of postoperative complications. However, there is no well-established system for assessing the risk of complications after hepatectomy in older adults.

METHODS: This study aimed to design a risk assessment tool to predict the risk of complications after hepatectomy in adults older than 75 years. A total of 326 patients were identified. A logistic regression equation was used to create the Risk Assessment System of Hepatectomy in Adults (RASHA) for the prediction of complications (Clavien‒Dindo classification ≥ II).

RESULTS: Multivariate correlation analysis revealed that comorbidity (≥ 5 kinds of disease or < 5 kinds of disease, odds ratio [OR] = 5.552, P < 0.001), fatigue (yes or no, OR = 4.630, P = 0.009), Child‒Pugh (B or A, OR = 4.211, P = 0.004), number of liver segments to be removed (≥ 3 or ≤ 2, OR = 4.101, P = 0.001), and adjacent organ resection (yes or no, OR = 1.523, P = 0.010) were independent risk factors for postoperative complications after hepatectomy in older persons (aged ≥ 75 years). A binomial logistic regression model was established to evaluate the RASHA score (including the RASHA scale and RASHA formula). The area under the curve (AUC) for the RASHA scale was 0.916, and the cut-off value was 12.5. The AUC for the RASHA formula was 0.801, and the cut-off value was 0.2106.

CONCLUSION: RASHA can be used to effectively predict the postoperative complications of hepatectomy through perioperative variables in adults older than 75 years.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Research Registry: researchregistry8531. https://www.researchregistry.com/browse-the-registry#home/registrationdetails/63901824ae49230021a5a0cf/ .