Risk factors predicting pathological degradation after cervical excision in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II P16-positive patients over 25 years old: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) is a collective term for pre-cancerous lesions associated with cervical invasive carcinoma. Treatment options depend on the development and progression of the disease. Especially for patients with CINII grade who are aged 25 years and older and have fertility requirements, it is a clinical challenge to determine whether to proceed with conservative or excisional treatment. Excisional treatment increases the risk of overtreatment outcomes, such as cervical insufficiency, preterm labor, miscarriage, and premature rupture of membranes, in young women with childbearing potential. P16 immunohistochemical staining has greatly improved the consistency of CINII patient's diagnosis. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk factors predicting pathological degradation after cervical excision in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II P16-positive patients over 25 years old, and to provide information to help optimize clinical treatments patients with CINII disease.

METHODS: Single-factor and logistic regression models were used to analyze the risk factors for pathological downgrading in the CINII/P16-positive (+) group. The predicted probability of pathological downgrading in the CINII/P16(+) group of patients was calculated according to the logistic regression model to generate a new variable multi-indicator association for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve plotting to determine the predictive ability.

RESULTS: A total of 248 women who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were included. Statistical analysis showed that the CINII/P16(+) group had a higher pathological downgrading rate compared with the CINIII group after cold knife conization (CKC) (χ2 =6.26, P=0.012). Univariate factors showed that the differences were statistically significant when comparing age, number of biopsy-involved quadrants, menopausal status, and involvement of glands, respectively (P<0.05). In contrast, the differences were not statistically significant when comparing cytological findings, type of transformation zone, high-risk human papilloma virus (HR-HPV) testing, abortion status, pregnancy frequency, time from diagnosis to CKC and Ki67 percentage between the two groups. Multifactorial logistic regression showed that the extent of biopsy CINII involvement [odds ratio (OR), 1.589], menopausal status (OR, 4.031), and glandular involvement (OR, 5.549) were all independent risk factors for pathological downgrading in the CINII/P16(+) patient group (P<0.05). The order of significance of the areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) was as follows: combined multiple indicators (AUC 0.716) > gland involvement (AUC 0.625) > biopsy CINII involvement extent (AUC 0.614) > menopausal status (AUC 0.565).

CONCLUSIONS: A higher rate of pathological downgrading after CKC was found in CINII/P16-positive patients who were aged over 25 years. Overtreatment exists in patients with CINII/P16-positive diagnosis. Independent factors for pathological downgrading were identified by the factors including if the lesion involved the gland, the extent of CINII involvement on biopsy, and menopausal status.