A nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality in patients with pulmonary hypertension due to left heart failure: A retrospective analysis of a prospective registry study.

INTRODUCTION: Pulmonary hypertension due to left heart failure (PH-LHF) is a disease with high prevalence and 3-year mortality rates. Consequently, timely identification of patients with high mortality risk is critical. This study aimed to build a nomogram for predicting 3-year mortality and screening high-risk PH-LHF patients.

METHODS: This nomogram was developed on a training cohort of 175 patients with PH-LHF diagnosed by right heart catheterization (RHC). Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify independent predictors and develop this nomogram. The median total points obtained from the nomogram were used as a cut-off point, and patients were classified into low- and high-risk groups. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were utilized to ascertain the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. External validation was performed using a validation cohort of 77 PH-LHF patients from other centers.

RESULTS: Multivariate Cox regression showed that the New York Heart Association functional classification (NYHA FC), uric acid level, and mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) were all independent predictors and incorporated into the nomogram. The nomogram showed good discrimination (C-index of 0.756; 95% CI: 0.688 - 0.854), and good calibration. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patients in the high-risk group had worse survival ( p < 0.001). In the external validation, the nomogram showed both good discrimination (C-index of 0.738; 95% CI: 0.591 - 0.846) and calibration.

CONCLUSION: The nomogram had a good performance in predicting 3-year mortality and can effectively identify high-risk patients. The nomogram may help to reduce the mortality of PH-LHF.