A mathematical model of competition between fiber and mucin degraders in the gut provides a possible explanation for mucus thinning.

The human gut microbiota relies on complex carbohydrates (glycans) for energy and growth, primarily dietary fiber and host-derived mucins. We introduce a mathematical model of a glycan generalist and a mucin specialist in a two-compartment chemostat model of the human colon. Our objective is to characterize the influence of dietary fiber and mucin supply on the abundance of mucin-degrading species within the gut ecosystem. Current mathematical gut reactor models that include the enzymatic degradation of glycans do not differentiate between glycan types and their degraders. The model we present distinguishes between a generalist that can degrade both dietary fiber and mucin, and a specialist species that can only degrade mucin. The integrity of the colonic mucus barrier is essential for overall human health and well-being, with the mucin specialist Akkermanisa muciniphila being associated with a healthy mucus layer. Competition, particularly between the specialist and generalists like Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron, may lead to mucus layer erosion, especially during periods of dietary fiber deprivation. Our model treats the colon as a gut reactor system, dividing it into two compartments that represent the lumen and the mucus of the gut, resulting in a complex system of ordinary differential equations with a large and uncertain parameter space. To understand the influence of model parameters on long-term behavior, we employ a random forest classifier, a supervised machine learning method. Additionally, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is utilized to determine the sensitivity of steady-state values to changes in model parameter inputs. By constructing this model, we can investigate the underlying mechanisms that control gut microbiota composition and function, free from confounding factors.