Journal of Theoretical Biology

In this paper we use simulation methods to study a hypothetical uncoupling agent as a therapy for dementia. We simulate the proliferation of mitochondrial deletion mutants amongst a population of wild-type in human neurons. Mitochondria play a key role in ATP generation. Clonal expansion can lead to the wild-type being overwhelmed by deletions such that a diminished population can no longer fulfill a cell's energy requirement, eventually leading to its demise. The intention of uncoupling is to reduce the formation of deletion mutants by reducing mutation rate...

The standard consolidation theory states that short-term memories located in the hippocampus enable the consolidation of long-term memories in the neocortex. In other words, the neocortex slowly learns long-term memories with a transient support of the hippocampus that quickly learns unstable memories. However, it is not clear yet what could be the neurobiological mechanisms underlying these differences in learning rates and memory time-scales. Here, we propose a novel modelling approach of the standard consolidation theory, that focuses on its potential neurobiological mechanisms...

In the current paper we analyse an extended SIRS epidemic model in which immunity at the individual level wanes gradually at exponential rate, but where the waning rate may differ between individuals, for instance as an effect of differences in immune systems. The model also includes vaccination schemes aimed to reach and maintain herd immunity. We consider both the informed situation where the individual waning parameters are known, thus allowing selection of vaccinees being based on both time since last vaccination as well as on the individual waning rate, and the more likely uninformed situation where individual waning parameters are unobserved, thus only allowing vaccination schemes to depend on time since last vaccination...

This paper introduces a method to simulate the progression of senile plaques, focusing on scenarios where concentrations of amyloid beta (Aβ) monomers and aggregates vary between neurons. Extracellular variations in these concentrations may arise due to limited diffusivity of Aβ monomers and a high rate of Aβ monomer production at lipid membranes, requiring a substantial concentration gradient for diffusion-driven transport of Aβ monomers. The dimensionless formulation of the model is presented, which identifies four key dimensionless parameters governing the solutions for Aβ monomer and aggregate concentrations, as well as the radius of a growing Aβ plaque within the control volume...

Chemotaxis, cell migration in response to chemical gradients, is known to promote self-organization of microbiological populations. However, the modeling of chemotaxis in heterogeneous environments is still limited. This study analyses a decentralised gathering process in environments with physical as well as chemical barriers, using a multi-agent model for Disctyostelium discoideum colonies. Employing a topology-independent metric to quantify the system evolution, we study dynamical features emerging from complex social interactions...

The human gut microbiota relies on complex carbohydrates (glycans) for energy and growth, primarily dietary fiber and host-derived mucins. We introduce a mathematical model of a glycan generalist and a mucin specialist in a two-compartment chemostat model of the human colon. Our objective is to characterize the influence of dietary fiber and mucin supply on the abundance of mucin-degrading species within the gut ecosystem. Current mathematical gut reactor models that include the enzymatic degradation of glycans do not differentiate between glycan types and their degraders...

The recent global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in governments enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. But the NPIs also affected the transmission of viruses causing non-target seasonal respiratory diseases, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In many countries, the NPIs were found to reduce cases of such seasonal respiratory diseases, but there is also evidence that subsequent relaxation of NPIs led to outbreaks of these diseases that were larger than pre-pandemic ones, due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals prior to relaxation...

Adaptive radiation is a major source of biodiversity but the way in which known components of ecological opportunity, ecological differentiation, and reproductive isolation underpin such biodiversity patterns remains elusive. Much is known about the evolution of ecological differentiation and reproductive isolation during single speciation events, but exactly how those processes scale up to complete adaptive radiations is less understood. Do we expect complete reproductive barriers between newly formed species before the ecological differentiation continues, or does proper species formation occur much later, long after the ecological diversification? Our goal is to improve our mechanistic understanding of adaptive radiations by analyzing an individual-based model that includes a suite of mechanisms that are known to contribute to biodiversity...

Immune checkpoint therapy (ICT) has greatly improved the survival of cancer patients in the past few years, but only a small number of patients respond to ICT. To predict ICT response, we developed a multi-modal feature fusion model based on deep learning (MFMDL). This model utilizes graph neural networks to map gene-gene relationships in gene networks to low dimensional vector spaces, and then fuses biological pathway features and immune cell infiltration features to make robust predictions of ICT. We used five datasets to validate the predictive performance of the MFMDL...

Obesity and diabetes are a progressively more and more deleterious hallmark of modern, well fed societies. In order to study the potential impact of strategies designed to obviate the pathological consequences of detrimental lifestyles, a model for the development of Type 2 diabetes geared towards large population simulations would be useful. The present work introduces such a model, representing in simplified fashion the interplay between average glycemia, average insulinemia and functional beta-cell mass, and incorporating the effects of excess food intake or, conversely, of physical activity levels...

Cancer therapy often leads to the selective elimination of drug-sensitive cells from the tumour. This can favour the growth of cells resistant to the therapeutic agent, ultimately causing a tumour relapse. Castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) is a well-characterised instance of this phenomenon. In CRPC, after systemic androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), a subset of drug-resistant cancer cells autonomously produce testosterone, thus enabling tumour regrowth. A previous theoretical study has shown that such a tumour relapse can be delayed by inhibiting the growth of drug-resistant cells using biotic competition from drug-sensitive cells...

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 with a goal to keep the prevalence of LF infections under the 1% threshold. While mass drug administration (MDA) is a primary strategy recommended by WHO, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) plays a crucial role as an alternative strategy when MDA cannot be used. In this paper, we use imitation dynamics to incorporate human behavior and voluntary use of ITN into the compartmental epidemiological model of LF transmission...

The success of individual species under a change to the environment is dependent on a number of factors, which include the changes to habitat, competition with other species and adaptability. Here we investigate the impact of differing dispersal characteristics of two competing species responding to the change using an idealized spatio-temporal model. The rate of dispersion is given by a combination of the growth term and the form of the diffusion term, which is set to give either normal diffusion or anomalous (super) diffusion...

Understanding how ecosystems respond to their environmental temperature is a major challenge. Thermodynamic constraints on species' metabolic rates are expected to affect ecosystem characteristics, but species interactions and interspecific variation in physiological thermal response curves (TRC) may obscure ecosystem-level responses to temperature. As a result, macroecological patterns related to temperature are still poorly understood. We investigate how physiological TRC scale up to ecosystem-level thermal responses by modifying the Tangled Nature (TaNa) model, a stochastic network model of ecology and evolution...

Tree shape statistics based on peripheral structures have been utilised to study evolutionary mechanisms and inference methods. Partially motivated by a recent study by Pouryahya and Sankoff on modelling the accumulation of subgenomes in the evolution of polyploids, we present the distribution of subtree patterns with four or fewer leaves for the unrooted Proportional to Distinguishable Arrangements (PDA) model. We derive a recursive formula for computing the joint distributions, as well as a Strong Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the joint distributions...

Understanding host behavioral change in response to epidemics is important to forecast the disease dynamics. To predict the behavioral change relevant to the epidemic situation (e.g., the number of reported cases), we need to know the epidemic situation at the moment of decision, which is difficult to identify from the records of actually performed human mobility. In this study, the largest travel accommodation reservation data covering half of the existed accommodations in Japan was analyzed to observe decision-making timings and how it responded to the changing epidemic situation during Japan's Coronavirus Disease 2019 until February 2023...

The internal behaviour of a population is an important feature to take account of when modelling its dynamics. In line with kin selection theory, many social species tend to cluster into distinct groups in order to enhance their overall population fitness. Temporal interactions between populations are often modelled using classical mathematical models, but these sometimes fail to delve deeper into the, often uncertain, relationships within populations. Here, we introduce a stochastic framework that aims to capture the interactions of animal groups and an auxiliary population over time...

This paper revisits the observability and identifiability properties of a popular ODE model commonly adopted to characterize the HIV dynamics in HIV-infected patients with antiretroviral treatment. These properties are determined by using the general analytical solution of the unknown input observability problem, introduced very recently in Martinelli (2022). This solution provides the systematic procedures able to determine the state observability and the parameter identifiability of any ODE model, in particular, even in the presence of time varying parameters...

Our objective was to decompose mortality mechanisms during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to estimate direct, indirect, and associated deaths from COVID-19. Given the confirmatory diagnosis of COVID-19, a death event that was not necessarily caused by respiratory complications but stemmed from other complications was categorized as an indirect death from COVID-19. Associated deaths occurred in patients who did not have COVID-19 but died during the surge in COVID-19 cases when overwhelming pressure was exerted on the healthcare system...

Studies have shown that the internal structure of modules is hardly important for the spread of epidemics. However, most of these studies have assumed that intra-module connectivity and inter-module connectivity do not affect each other. In reality, changes in the internal structure of modules may affect inter-module links and thus change the modularity of the entire network. Therefore, we have developed a theoretical network model with adjustable modularity to investigate the impact of this situation on disease transmission...