Invasive pneumococcal disease 3 years after introduction of a reduced 1 + 1 infant 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine immunisation schedule in England: a prospective national observational surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: The UK transition from a 2 + 1 to a 1 + 1 infant immunisation schedule with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) on Jan 1, 2020, coincided with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in England over 6 financial years (April 1 to March 31) between 2017-18 and 2022-23.

METHODS: We used prospective national surveillance data, including serotyping and whole-genome sequencing of invasive isolates, to analyse IPD trends in England by age and financial year. We compared breakthrough infections and vaccine failure rates in 2022-23 among children eligible for the 1 + 1 schedule with rates in cohorts of children eligible for the 2 + 1 schedule between 2017-18 and 2019-20. We assessed genomic changes over time by comparing Global Pneumococcal Sequencing Clusters and multilocus sequence types among PCV13 serotypes causing IPD.

FINDINGS: There were 4598 laboratory-confirmed IPD cases in 2022-23, 3025 in 2021-22, 1240 in 2020-21, and 5316 in 2019-20. IPD incidence in 2022-23 was 14% lower than in 2019-20 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·86, 95% CI 0·81-0·91; p<0·001). IPD incidence in 2022-23 compared with 2019-20 was 34% higher in children (aged <15 years) (378 cases vs 292 cases; IRR 1·34, 95% CI 1·08-1·68; p=0·009) and 17% lower in adults (aged 15 years and older; 4220 vs 5024; 0·83, 0·78-0·88; p<0·001). The proportion of PCV13-type IPD increased from 19·4% (95% CI 18·2-20·4; 957 of 4947) in 2019-20 to 29·7% (28·3-31·0; 1283 of 4326) in 2022-23, mainly due to serotype 3, but also serotypes 19F, 19A, and 4, alongside a decrease in non-PCV13 serotypes 8, 12F, and 9N. The increase in IPD incidence due to serotypes 3, 19A, and 19F was driven by clonal expansion of previously circulating strains, whereas serotype 4 expansion was driven by newer strains (ie, sequence types 801 and 15603). Breakthrough infections and vaccine failure rates were similar in children eligible for the 1 + 1 (1·07 per 100 000 person-years) and 2 + 1 (0·76 per 100 000 person-years; IRR 1·42, 95% CI 0·78-2·49; p=0·20) PCV13 schedules.

INTERPRETATION: Overall, IPD incidence in England was lower in 2022-23, 2 years after removal of pandemic restrictions, than in 2019-20. Breakthrough and vaccine failure rates were not significantly different between children who received the 1 + 1 compared with the 2 + 1 PCV13 immunisation schedule. The post-pandemic increase in childhood IPD incidence and especially PCV13-type IPD will require close monitoring.

FUNDING: None.