A systematic review and meta-analysis of the relationship between heavy smoking and probability discounting.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Probability discounting (PD), which refers to the process of adjusting the value of future probabilities when making decisions, is a method of measuring impulsive decision-making; however, the relationship between PD and nicotine remains unclear. The current study aimed at investigating the significance of PD in individuals who smoke.

METHODS: According to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, we searched the PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases for articles comparing individuals who smoke and their tobacco-naïve controls using PD task as outcome measure from inception to May 2023. The main outcome was an overall difference in PD function, while subgroup analysis and meta-regression were conducted to examine the analysis methods and the moderators of PD.

RESULTS: Fourteen studies in total involving 384 individuals who smoke and 493 controls (mean age = 24.32 years, range = 15.1-38.05 years) were analyzed. The effect of smoking on PD was significant (g = 0.51, p = .02). The discounting parameter from the equation, compared to the area under the curve, was more sensitive to estimating PD function (p = .01). Regression analysis showed positive correlations of PD with female percentage, age, and the number of probability options (all p < .04), but not with the number of choices at each probability and maximum reward magnitude (all p > .07). There was no significant publication bias across the eligible studies (p = .09).

CONCLUSION AND SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings, which are the first to demonstrate a smaller PD (i.e., prone to risk-taking) in individuals who smoke, shed light on the appropriate analysis method, gender effect, age, and probability options on the PD function.