Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for 90-day venous thromboembolism risk following total hip and total knee arthroplasty: a multinational study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is 1.0% to 1.5%, despite uniform thromboprophylaxis.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prediction model for 90-day VTE risk.

METHODS: A multinational cohort study was performed. For model development, records were used from the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics UK routine data. For external validation, data were used from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registry, the National Patient Registry, and the National Prescription Registry. Binary multivariable logistic regression techniques were used for development.

RESULTS: In the UK data set, 64 032 THA/TKA procedures were performed and 1.4% developed VTE. The prediction model consisted of age, body mass index, sex, cystitis within 1 year before surgery, history of phlebitis, history of VTE, presence of varicose veins, presence of asthma, history of transient ischemic attack, history of myocardial infarction, presence of hypertension and THA or TKA. The area under the curve of the model was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67). Furthermore, 36 169 procedures were performed in the Danish cohort, of whom 1.0% developed VTE. Here, the area under the curve was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.67). The calibration slope was 0.92 in the validation study and 1.00 in the development study.

CONCLUSION: This clinical prediction model for 90-day VTE risk following THA and TKA performed well in both development and validation data. This model can be used to estimate an individual's risk for VTE following THA/TKA.