Predicting functional and quality-of-life outcomes following pediatric sepsis: performance of PRISM-III and PELOD-2.

BACKGROUND: Illness severity scores predict mortality following pediatric critical illness. Given declining PICU mortality, we assessed the ability of the Pediatric Risk of Mortality-III (PRISM) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 (PELOD) scores to predict morbidity outcomes.

METHODS: Among 359 survivors <18 years in the Life After Pediatric Sepsis Evaluation multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed functional morbidity at hospital discharge (Functional Status Scale increase ≥3 points from baseline) and health-related quality of life (HRQL; Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory or Functional Status II-R) deterioration >25% from baseline at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months post-admission. We determined discrimination of admission PRISM and admission, maximum, and cumulative 28-day PELOD with functional and HRQL morbidity at each timepoint.

RESULTS: Cumulative PELOD provided the best discrimination of discharge functional morbidity (area under the receive operating characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.81, 95% CI 0.76-0.87) and 3-month HRQL deterioration (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.61-0.81). Prediction was inferior for admission PRISM and PELOD and for 6- and 12-month HRQL assessments.

CONCLUSIONS: Illness severity scores have a good prediction of early functional morbidity but a more limited ability to predict longer-term HRQL. Identification of factors beyond illness severity that contribute to HRQL outcomes may offer opportunities for intervention to improve outcomes.

IMPACT: Illness severity scores are commonly used for mortality prediction and risk stratification in pediatric critical care research, quality improvement, and resource allocation algorithms. Prediction of morbidity rather than mortality may be beneficial given declining pediatric intensive care unit mortality. The PRISM and PELOD scores have moderate to good ability to predict new functional morbidity at hospital discharge following pediatric septic shock but limited ability to predict health-related quality of life outcomes in the year following PICU admission. Further research is needed to identify additional factors beyond illness severity that may impact post-discharge health-related quality of life.