How Much Is Too Much? Estimating Effective Price-Hikes to Affect Smoking Behavior in Vietnam.

INTRODUCTION: Raising the price of cigarettes is one of the most effective strategies to reduce cigarette smoking. The Vietnamese government is working toward the tobacco control goal of a 10% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2020. However, cigarette prices in Vietnam have not increased in the last two decades. The aim of this study was to estimate what cigarette prices would make smokers attempt to quit smoking, and to identify predictors of the price to quit and the intention to quit.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 822 male current smokers in Da Nang, Vietnam. A structured questionnaire was adapted from the International Tobacco Control project survey. Bayesian quantile regression was applied to predict factors associated with expected cigarette price.

RESULTS: Fifty-six percent of smokers suggested a price to quit. Their median suggested price to quit per pack, 62 000 VND (2.8 USD), was 2.8 times higher than the actual current price, 22 000 VND (1.01 USD). Suggesting a lower price to quit was significantly associated with awareness of warning labels and smoke-free policies. In contrast, being a heavy smoker was significantly associated with a higher suggested price to quit across all quantiles.

CONCLUSIONS: There may be sufficient room to increase cigarette prices in Vietnam. The price to quit is associated with various factors, including non-pricing policies.

IMPLICATIONS: Evidence suggests that a steep increase in cigarette prices, setting a high minimum tax, and introducing a large specific tax, which are policy-induced price increases that can raise prices substantially in Vietnam, are preferable strategies. In addition to increasing price and taxes, the government should also strengthen non-pricing policies.