JOURNAL ARTICLE

Prognostic score models for survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy and chemotherapy

Lei Zeng, Pi Guo, Jin-Gao Li, Fei Han, Qiang Li, Yong Lu, Xiao-Wu Deng, Qing-Ying Zhang, Tai-Xiang Lu
Oncotarget 2015 November 17, 6 (36): 39373-83
26415223

PURPOSE: To establish accurate prognostic score models to predict survival for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and chemotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six hundred and seventy-five patients with newly diagnosed, nonmetastatic and histologically proven NPC who were treated with IMRT and chemotherapy were analyzed retrospectively. Samples were split randomly into a training set (n = 338) and a test set (n = 337) to analyze. All data from the training set were used to perform an extensive survival analysis and to develop multivariate nomograms based on Cox regression. Data from the test set was used as an external validation set. Risk group stratification was proposed for the nomograms.

RESULTS: The nomograms are able to predict survival with a C-index for external validation of local recurrence-free survival (LRFS; 0.66, 95% CI: 0.58-0.74), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS; 0.73, 95% CI: 0.66-0.79), and disease-specific survival (DSS; 0.73, 95% CI: 0.67-0.79). The calibration curve for probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram for LRFS, DMFS and DSS were statistically higher than the C-index values of the AJCC seventh edition (P < 0.001). In the test set, the nomogram discrimination was also superior to the AJCC Staging systems (P < 0.001). The stratification in risk groups allows significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for outcome.

CONCLUSIONS: Prognostic score models were successfully established and validated to predict LRFS, DMFS, and DSS over a 5-year period after IMRT and chemotherapy, which will be useful for individual treatment.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article

Discussion

You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Related Papers

Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read
26415223
×

Save your favorite articles in one place with a free QxMD account.

×

Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"