Prediction factors of recurrent ischemic events in one year after minor stroke.

BACKGROUND: The risk of a subsequent stroke following a minor stroke is high. However, there are no effective rating scales to predict recurrent stroke following a minor one. Therefore, we assessed the risk factors associated with recurrent ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within one year of minor stroke onset in order to identify possible risk factors.

METHODS: Eight hundred and sixty-three non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke patients in the Chinese IntraCranial AtheroSclerosis Study that presented with minor stroke, defined as an admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) score of ≤3, were consecutively enrolled in our study. Clinical information and imaging features upon admission, and any recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA within one year was recorded. Cox regression was used to identify risk factors associated with recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA within the year following stroke onset.

RESULTS: A total of 50 patients (6.1%) experienced recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA within one year of minor stroke onset. Multivariate Cox regression model identified lower admission NIHSS score (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.32 to 2.33; P<0.0001), history of coronary heart disease (HR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.17 to 5.86; P = 0.02), severe stenosis or occlusion of large cerebral artery (HR, 4.68; 95% CI, 1.87 to 11.7; P = 0.001), and multiple acute cerebral infarcts (HR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.01 to 6.80; P = 0.05) as independent risk factors for recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA within one year.

CONCLUSIONS: Some minor stroke patients are at higher risk for recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA. Urgent and intensified therapy may be reasonable in these patients.