Progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in advanced/recurrent gastric cancer trials: a meta-analysis

Xavier Paoletti, Koji Oba, Yung-Jue Bang, Harry Bleiberg, Narikazu Boku, Olivier Bouché, Paul Catalano, Nozomu Fuse, Stefan Michiels, Markus Moehler, Satoshi Morita, Yasuo Ohashi, Atsushi Ohtsu, Arnaud Roth, Philippe Rougier, Junichi Sakamoto, Daniel Sargent, Mitsuru Sasako, Kohei Shitara, Peter Thuss-Patience, Eric Van Cutsem, Tomasz Burzykowski, Marc Buyse
Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2013 November 6, 105 (21): 1667-70
The traditional endpoint for assessing efficacy of chemotherapies for advanced/recurrent gastric cancer is overall survival (OS), but OS requires prolonged follow-up. We investigated whether progression-free survival (PFS) is a valid surrogate for OS. Using individual patient data from the GASTRIC meta-analysis, surrogacy of PFS was assessed through the correlation between the endpoints and through the correlation between the treatment effects on the endpoints. External validation of the prediction based on PFS was also evaluated. Individual data from 4069 patients in 20 randomized trials were analyzed. The rank correlation coefficient between PFS and OS was 0.853 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.852 to 0.854). The R (2) between treatment effects on PFS and on OS was 0.61 (95% CI = 0.04 to 1.00). Treatment effects on PFS and on OS were only moderately correlated, and we could not confirm the validity of PFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS in advanced/recurrent gastric cancer.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article


You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Related Papers

Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read

Save your favorite articles in one place with a free QxMD account.


Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"