A prognostic model based on combining estrogen receptor expression and Ki-67 value after neoadjuvant chemotherapy predicts clinical outcome in locally advanced breast cancer: extension and analysis of a previously reported cohort of patients.

BACKGROUND: Ki-67 expression has gained attention as a breast cancer prognostic factor, however its significance in the remaining malignant cells after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has been rarely examined. This investigation, extension and analysis of a previously reported cohort of patients, evaluates the significance of Ki-67 and estrogen receptor (ER) expression after NAC in LABC (locally advanced breast cancer).

PATIENTS AND METHODS: clinical stage, tumor size, clinical and pathological lymph node involvement, Ki-67, ER, progesterone receptor (PgR), HER2 expression, grading and clinical response were evaluated before and after NAC in 110 patients with LABC. Ki-67 expression was assessed both in pre and post-therapy histological samples, using >15% positive cells as cut-off value to distinguish high from low Ki-67 expressing tumors.

RESULTS: six patients (5.45%) attained pCR after NAC. A significant relationship between elevated post-CT Ki-67 and ER expression was showed at Cox multivariate analysis of disease free survival (DFS). On univariate analysis high post-chemotherapy Ki-67 and ER status were associated with worse survival; at multivariate model included these results were confirmed. Based on these two parameters, a prognostic model identified two different groups: low risk (low postchemotherapy Ki-67 and ER positive, or either high post-chemotherapy Ki-67 or ER negative), and high risk (high post-chemotherapy Ki-67 and ER negative). The low risk group showed a good prognosis (median OS still not reached), while the high risk group had a worse OS (median 41 months).

CONCLUSIONS: Ki-67 value after NAC and ER status could predict a worse prognosis among LABC patients treated with NAC.