Comparison of different anthropometric measures as predictors of diabetes incidence in a Chinese population.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore an optimal anthropometric indicator and optimal cut-off points for incident diabetes in Chinese adults.

METHODS: 61,703 subjects were followed for a median duration of 2 years. Body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-height ratio were collected base on a standard protocol. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve analyses were used to compare the predictive power of baseline BMI, WC, WHpR and WHtR for development of type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS: There were 2991 new cases of type 2 diabetes during follow-up. ROC curve analyses indicated that WHtR was the best predictor of type 2 diabetes for male (AUC = 0.633). For female, WHtR and WC had similar predictive ability (AUC = 0.701 and 0.695 respectively) and were superior to BMI. WHpR was the weakest predictor in both genders. The optimal WHtR cut-off values for incidence of type 2 diabetes were similar in both genders (0.53 vs. 0.52). BMI was higher in men (26 kg/m(2)) than women (24 kg/m(2)); and so did WC (91 cm in men vs. 85 cm in women).

CONCLUSIONS: WHtR, and to some degree WC, are the best predictors of type 2 diabetes, followed by BMI then WHpR which is the weakest predictor in the tested adults.