The clinical value of procalcitonin in the prediction of infected necrosis in acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVE: Infection of pancreatic necrosis (IN) has a major impact on management and outcome in acute pancreatitis (AP). Currently, guided fine-needle aspiration (FNA) is the only means for an accurate diagnosis of IN. Procalcitonin (PCT), a 116 amino acid pro-peptide of calcitonin has been found in high concentrations in patients with sepsis. In the present study we analyzed the clinical value of serum PCT for predicting IN in AP and compared the results to guided FNA.

DESIGN: Clinical study.

SETTING: A collaborative study between the Departments of General Surgery and Clinical Chemistry/ Pathobiochemistry of the University of Ulm, Germany.

PATIENTS: 61 patients with AP entered this study and were stratified into three groups according to morphological and bacteriological data: I. 22 patients with edematous pancreatitis (AIP), II. 18 patients with sterile necrosis (SN), III. 21 patients with IN.

MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: During an observation period of 14 days PCT was measured by immunoluminometry, CRP was determined by lasernephelometry on a routine base. In patients with IN overall PCT concentrations were significantly higher than in those with SN, whereas CRP levels did not differ in both groups. In contrast, only low concentrations of both parameters were found in patients with AIP. By ROC analysis the best PCT cut-off level for predicting IN or persisting pancreatic sepsis was obtained at > or =1.8 ng/ml. If this cut-off was reached on at least two consecutive days, IN could be predicted with a sensitivity of 95%, a specificity, of 88%, and an accuracy of 90%. Guided FNA achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 91%. 79%, and 84% in differentiating IN from SN, respectively. After surgical treatment of IN median PCT values continued to be significantly higher in patients with persisting pancreatic sepsis (n=12) compared to those with an uneventful postoperative course (n=7). Our results demonstrate that monitoring of serum PCT could serve as a noninvasive and accurate method to predict IN in AP as well as to select patients with persisting septic complications after surgical debridement.