Validation of a nomogram for predicting disease-specific survival after an R0 resection for gastric carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: A statistical model for predicting disease-specific survival in patients with gastric carcinoma, based on a single U.S. institution experience, was tested for validity in a sample of patients treated at different institutions.

METHODS: The authors analysed 459 patients from the Dutch Gastric Cancer trial that compared limited (D1) with extended (D2) lymph node dissection. The discrimination ability of the nomogram with respect to 5 and 9-year disease-specific survival probabilities was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system.

RESULTS: There was considerable heterogeneity of risk within many of the AJCC stages. Calibration plots suggested that predicted probabilities from the nomogram corresponded closely to actual disease-specific survival. The gastric carcinoma nomogram performed well when applied to patients treated in a large number of institutions.

CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram provided predictions that discriminated better than the AJCC staging system, regardless of the extent of lymph node dissection. Patient counseling and adjuvant therapy decision-making should benefit from use of the nomogram.