Probabilistic model

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Exposure to childhood maltreatment-a risk factor for psychosis is associated with paranoia-may impact one's beliefs about the world and how beliefs are updated. We hypothesized that increased exposure to childhood maltreatment is related to volatility-related belief updating, specifically higher expectations of volatility, and that these relationships are strongest for threat-related maltreatment. Additionally, we tested whether belief updating mediates the relationship between maltreatment and paranoia...

Collective dynamics emerge from individual-level decisions, yet we still poorly understand the link between individual-level decision-making processes and collective outcomes in realistic physical systems. Using collective foraging to study the key trade-off between personal and social information use, we present a mechanistic, spatially-explicit agent-based model that combines individual-level evidence accumulation of personal and (visual) social cues with particle-based movement. Under idealized conditions without physical constraints, our mechanistic framework reproduces findings from established probabilistic models, but explains how individual-level decision processes generate collective outcomes in a bottom-up way...

A fundamental challenge in neuroscience is accurately defining brain states and predicting how and where to perturb the brain to force a transition. Here, we investigated resting-state fMRI data of patients suffering from disorders of consciousness (DoC) after coma (minimally conscious and unresponsive wakefulness states) and healthy controls. We applied model-free and model-based approaches to help elucidate the underlying brain mechanisms of patients with DoC. The model-free approach allowed us to characterize brain states in DoC and healthy controls as a probabilistic metastable substate (PMS) space...

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with high mortality and hospitalization rates. Non-invasive remote patient monitoring (RPM) interventions have the potential to prevent disease worsening. However, the long-term cost-effectiveness of RPM remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of RPM in the Netherlands (NL), the United Kingdom (UK), and Germany (DE) highlighting the differences between cost-effectiveness from a societal and healthcare perspective...

INTRODUCTION: In Argentina, vaccination with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) followed by 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23; PCV13 → PPSV23) has been recommended for all adults aged ≥ 65 years and younger adults with chronic medical ("moderate-risk") or immunocompromising ("high-risk") conditions since 2017. With the approval of a 20-valent PCV (PCV20), we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of PCV20 versus current recommendations for moderate-/high-risk adults aged 18-64 years and all adults 65-99 years...

BACKGROUND: Iruplinalkib is a second-generation anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) with efficacy in patients with ALK-positive crizotinib-resistant advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), which is independently developed by a Chinese pharmaceutical company. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of iruplinalkib versus alectinib in the Chinese healthcare setting. METHODS: A partitioned survival model was developed to project the economic and health outcomes...

OBJECTIVE: Endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is the standard of care for acute large vessel occlusion stroke. Recently, the ANGEL-ASPECT and SELECT 2 trials showed improved outcomes in patients with acute ischemic Stroke presenting with large infarcts. The cost-effectiveness of EVT for this subpopulation of stroke patients has only been calculated using data from the previously published RESCUE-Japan LIMIT trial. It is, therefore, limited in its generalizability to an international population...

Public transportation plays a critical role in meeting transportation demands, particularly in densely populated areas. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of public health measures, including the need to prevent the spread of the virus through public transport. The spreading of the virus on a passenger ship is studied using the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) model and Monte Carlo simulation. A particular focus was the context of Bangladesh, a populous maritime nation in South Asia, where a significant proportion of the population utilizes passenger ships to meet transportation demands...

Virtual brain twins are personalized, generative and adaptive brain models based on data from an individual's brain for scientific and clinical use. After a description of the key elements of virtual brain twins, we present the standard model for personalized whole-brain network models. The personalization is accomplished using a subject's brain imaging data by three means: (1) assemble cortical and subcortical areas in the subject-specific brain space; (2) directly map connectivity into the brain models, which can be generalized to other parameters; and (3) estimate relevant parameters through model inversion, typically using probabilistic machine learning...

Background and Aim Surveillance of non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus (BE) is recommended to identify progression to dysplasia; however, the most cost-effective strategy remains unclear. Mutation or aberrant expression of p53 has been associated with the development of dysplasia in BE. We sought to determine if surveillance intervals for BE could be stratified based on p53 expression. Methods A Markov model was developed for non-dysplastic BE. Patients with non-dysplastic BE (NDBE) underwent p53 immunohistochemistry (IHC) and those with abnormal p53 expression underwent surveillance endoscopy at 1 year, whilst patients with normal p53 expression underwent surveillance in 3 years...

The catecholamine neuromodulators dopamine and norepinephrine are implicated in motor function, motivation, and cognition. Although roles for striatal dopamine in these aspects of behavior are well established, the specific roles for cortical catecholamines in regulating striatal dopamine dynamics and behavior are less clear. We recently showed that elevating cortical dopamine but not norepinephrine suppresses hyperactivity in dopamine transporter knockout (DAT-KO) mice, which have elevated striatal dopamine levels...

This research addresses the pressing need for heightened grid security amid increasing uncertainties in photovoltaic PV generation. The research problem lies in the limitations of conventional contingency analysis metrics, failing to adequately consider both contingency occurrences and uncertainties inherent in PV generation. In response, a comprehensive algorithm is proposed that introduces a novel severity function framework, enhancing traditional contingency ranking metrics. This approach incorporates grid remedial actions and refines line and bus voltage classification by considering available correction time, aiming to offer a more robust security assessment...

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) provide the scientific basis for building codes to reduce damage from earthquakes. Despite their substantial impact, little is known about how well PSHA predicts actual shaking. Recent PSHA for California, Japan, Italy, Nepal, and France appear to consistently overpredict historically observed earthquake shaking intensities. Numerical simulations show that observed shaking is equally likely to be above or below predictions. This result from independently developed models and datasets in different countries and tectonic settings indicates possible systematic bias in the hazard models, the observations, or both...

Twitter, the largest microblogging platform, has reported more than 330 million active users in recent years. Many users express their sentiments about politics, sports, products, personalities, etc. Sentiment analysis has emerged as a specialized branch of machine learning in which tweets are binary-classified to provide sentimental insights. A major step in sentiment classification is feature selection, which primarily revolves around parts of speech (POS). Few techniques merely focused on single features such as adjectives, adverbs, and verbs, while other techniques examined types of these features, such as comparative adjectives, superlative adjectives, or general adverbs...

BACKGROUND: To compare denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) and generative adversarial networks (GAN) for recovering contrast-enhanced breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) subtraction images from virtual low-dose subtraction images. METHODS: Retrospective, ethically approved study. DDPM- and GAN-reconstructed single-slice subtraction images of 50 breasts with enhancing lesions were compared to original ones at three dose levels (25%, 10%, 5%) using quantitative measures and radiologic evaluations...

Gut microbes shape many aspects of organismal biology, yet how these key bacteria transmit among hosts in natural populations remains poorly understood. Recent work in mammals has emphasized either transmission through social contacts or indirect transmission through environmental contact, but the relative importance of different routes has not been directly assessed. Here we used a novel radio-frequency identification-based tracking system to collect long-term high-resolution data on social relationships, space use and microhabitat in a wild population of mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), while regularly characterizing their gut microbiota with 16S ribosomal RNA profiling...

Criminal investigations, particularly sexual assaults, frequently require the identification of body fluid type in addition to body fluid donor to provide context. In most cases this can be achieved by conventional methods, however, in certain scenarios, alternative molecular methods are required. An example of this is the detection of menstrual fluid and vaginal material, which are not able to be identified using conventional techniques. Endpoint reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR) is currently used for this purpose to amplify body fluid specific messenger RNA (mRNA) transcripts in forensic casework...

OBJECTIVE: Since 2013, Flanders has introduced a screening programme for colorectal cancer for all citizens aged between 50 and 74 years. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-utility of an expansion of the colorectal cancer screening policy in Flanders (Belgium) and to place these findings in the international context. METHODS: Cost-utility analysis using high-detail data about screening participation, screening results, and epidemiological data, a Markov cohort model has been constructed to study long-term costs and effects...

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate immunization coverage and dropout rates of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine across Brazilian regions. METHODS: This ecological study employing a space-time approach used data from the National Immunization Program (PNI) and the Live Births Information System (SINASC). We estimated the annual variation (2014 to 2021) in immunization coverage and dropout rate of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine in children aged 12 and 15 months in the 5 570 Brazilian municipalities...

Quantifying the potential spatial spread of an infectious pathogen is key to defining effective containment and control strategies. The aim of this study is to estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at different distances in Italy before the first regional lockdown was imposed, identifying important sources of national spreading. To do this, we leverage on a probabilistic model applied to daily symptomatic cases retrospectively ascertained in each Italian municipality with symptom onset between January 28 and March 7, 2020...