Protective immunity rate against monkeypox: expectation for present and future in case that there is no smallpox vaccine booster.

OBJECTIVES: Monkeypox is now regarded as a major global public health concern. A common symptom of this disease is an acute febrile illness with skin sores. The likelihood of the virus spreading from person to person is increasing. The aim of the present study is to estimate the protective immunity rate against monkeypox.

METHODS: Based on the current situation in Africa, the authors forecast the protective immunity rate against monkeypox for the present and future if a smallpox vaccination booster is not available. The clinical mathematical model was used. The primary data for analysis include data on the current serological rate against smallpox and data on the declining rate of smallpox immunity after the last vaccination.

RESULTS: According to the current clinical modeling study, protective immunity to monkeypox is limited. The rate among people who have previously been immunized against smallpox is still higher than the general population rate. If the present monkeypox outbreak (2022) is not successfully controlled, there could be a severe public health danger, such as a pandemic. On a larger scale, in a few years, no immunity will be a concern.

CONCLUSIONS: To suppress the current monkeypox outbreak, it may be necessary to research the use of a novel monkeypox immunization or a traditional smallpox vaccine.