The Importance of Natural History.

In a traditional view, the natural history of a condition or a disease tells us of the adult consequences of that entity, be it benign or otherwise. This knowledge then provides guidance as to who needs treatment, and allows us to assess whether our treatments alter an otherwise adverse natural history in a positive way without introducing iatrogenic complications. However, in the new paradigm for health care delivery of value-based care, we need to be able to express natural history in additional terms of burden of disease. This is something that lawmakers and people who pay for health care can understand and has a comparative value. It also serves as a benchmark to show the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing disease burden. In this paper, I will discuss why this POSNA symposium is important and make some recommendations on directions where we as individuals and as a professional society should be putting in our efforts and resources.