Large-scale association analysis of climate drought and decline in groundwater quantity using Gaussian process classification (case study: 609 study area of Iran).

Background: The level of groundwater resources is changing rapidly and this requires the discovery of newer groundwater resources. Drought is one of the most significant natural phenomena affecting different aspects of human life and environment. During the last decades, the application of artificial intelligent techniques has been recognized as effective approaches to forecast an annual precipitation rate.

Method: In this study, the association analysis of climate drought and a decline in groundwater level is addressed using Gaussian process classification (GPC) and backpropagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN). This methodology is proposed to create a framework for decision making and reduce uncertainty in water resource management calculations, and in particular to optimize the management of groundwater drinking water sources.

Results: Underground water levels in 609 study plains in Iran were used to predict drought over the test period, extending from 2017 to 2021. The artificial intelligence methods were implemented in the Python programming environment to achieve an annual precipitation rate. A statistical summary of the Rasterized Cells of the zoning maps was used to validate the prediction results. Considering the relationship between water quality reductions and drought in Iranian aquifers due to the occurrence of groundwater drought periods, the results were validated by analysis of the effect of climate drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on the occurrence of observed droughts with the Groundwater Resources Index (GRI). The results are well-illustrated by the observation of the predicted digits in the third dimension of the Gaussian distribution.

Conclusion: According to the SPI indicator, the southern regions of the country, and especially the central parts of the plain, can be considered the most affected areas by the most severe future droughts. The prediction results indicate a decrease in drought severity as part of a two-year sequence involving a recurrence of drought exacerbation and relative decline, as well as a failed state after the critical condition of aquifers.