Development and Internal Validation of a Prediction Model to Estimate the Probability of Needing Aggressive Immunosuppressive Therapy With Cytostatics in de Novo Lupus Nephritis Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariable clinical prediction model for the requirement of aggressive immunosuppression with cytostatics, based on simple clinical record data and lab tests. The model is defined in accordance with the result of the kidney biopsies.

METHODS: Retrospective study conducted with data from patients 16 years and older, with SLE and nephritis with less than 6 months of evolution. An initial bivariate analysis was conducted to select the variables to be included in a multiple logistic regression model. Goodness of fit was evaluated using a Hosmer-Lemeshow test (H-L) and the discrimination capacity of the model by means of the area under the ROC (AUC) curve.

RESULTS: Data from 242 patients was gathered; of these, 18.2% (n=44) did not need an addition of cytostatics according to the findings of their kidney biopsies. The variables included in the final model were 24-h proteinuria, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, C3 complement and the interaction of hematuria with leukocyturia in urinary sediment. The model showed excellent discrimination (AUC=0.929; 95% CI=0.894-0.963) and adequate calibration (H-L, P=.959).

CONCLUSION: In recent-onset LN patients, the decision to use or not to use intensive immunosuppressive therapy could be performed based on our prediction model as an alternative to kidney biopsies.