Validation of the MSKCC and Heng risk criteria models for predicting survival in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with sunitinib.

PURPOSE: To validate the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) and Heng models with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with sunitinib, and to investigate prognostic factors in these patients.

METHODS: This study included 106 patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma who were treated with sunitinib from April 2007 to July 2012 including 35 patients who received systemic treatment before sunitinib and 71 that were naive to systemic treatment. Patients were evaluated using the MSKCC and Heng models, and the significance of several prognostic factors were evaluated.

RESULTS: The application of the MSKCC and Heng risk criteria resulted in stratification into 3 groups (favorable, intermediate, and poor risk) with distinctly different overall survival (OS) curves (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively), for the pretreated patients (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). The Heng model had slightly better discriminatory ability (χ (2) = 30.82, Harrell's C = 0.6895) than the MSKCC model (χ (2) = 25.13, Harrell's C = 0.6532). Multivariate analysis revealed that the absence of nephrectomy and no hypertension at baseline, along with elevated C-reactive protein levels, were independent risk factors for poorer OS.

CONCLUSIONS: The MSKCC and Heng model were both valid models for predicting OS. The no nephrectomy, no hypertension at baseline, and high C-reactive protein levels were independently associated with poorer OS.