Bayesian probability

Bayesian decision theory (BDT) is frequently used to model normative performance in perceptual, motor, and cognitive decision tasks where the possible outcomes of actions are associated with rewards or penalties. The resulting normative models specify how decision makers should encode and combine information about uncertainty and value-step by step-in order to maximize their expected reward. When prior, likelihood, and posterior are probabilities, the Bayesian computation requires only simple arithmetic operations: addition, etc...

Understanding the dynamics of inter-group cooperation in human adaptation has been the subject of recent empirical and theoretical studies in evolutionary anthropology, beginning to fill gaps in our knowledge of how interactions across political, economic and social domains can - and often do - lead to stable, large-scale cooperation. Here we investigate dyadic intergroup cooperation in shotgun hunting in the Republic of the Congo. In the Congo Basin, inter-group cooperation between foragers and farmers is at the centre of an exchange system maintained by traditional norms and institutions such as fictive kinship...

INTRODUCTION: Non-narcotic intravenous medications may be a beneficial adjunct to oral multimodal pain regimens (MMPRs) which reduce but do not eliminate opioid exposure and prescribing after trauma. We hypothesized that the addition of a sub-dissociative ketamine infusion (KI) to a standardized oral MMPR reduces inpatient opioid exposure. METHODS: Eligible adult trauma patients admitted to the intermediate or intensive care unit were randomized upon admission to our institutional MMPR per usual care (UC) or UC plus sub-dissociative KI for 24 to 72 hours after arrival...

BACKGROUND: Whole blood (WB) transfusions in trauma represent an increasingly utilized resuscitation strategy in trauma patients. Previous reports suggest a probable mortality benefit with incorporating WB into massive transfusion protocols. However, questions surrounding optimal WB practices persist. We sought to assess the association between the proportion of WB transfused during the initial resuscitative period and its impact on early mortality outcomes for traumatically injured patients...

Clinical trials evaluate the safety and efficacy of treatments for specific diseases. Ensuring these studies are well-powered is crucial for identifying superior treatments. With the rise of personalized medicine, treatment efficacy may vary based on biomarker profiles. However, researchers often lack prior knowledge about which biomarkers are linked to varied treatment effects. Fixed or response-adaptive designs may not sufficiently account for heterogeneous patient characteristics, such as genetic diversity, potentially reducing the chance of selecting the optimal treatment for individuals...

BACKGROUND: Heightened stress and insufficient sleep are common in the transition to college, often co-occur, and have both been linked to negative health outcomes. A challenge concerns disentangling whether perceived stress precedes or succeeds changes in sleep. These day-to-day associations may vary across individuals, but short study periods and group-level analyses in prior research may have obscured person-specific phenotypes. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to obtain stable estimates of lead-lag associations between perceived stress and objective sleep duration in the individual, unbiased by the group, by developing an individual-level linear model that can leverage intensive longitudinal data while remaining parsimonious...

The healthcare landscape in Ghana is primarily composed of lower-tier providers, which serve as the initial  point of contact for most medical emergencies. This study aimed to assess the emergency care preparedness and readiness of primary healthcare providers using a robust evaluation approach. A multicentre retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on  460 healthcare facilities  using the standardised Health Facilities Emergency Preparedness Assessment Tool (HeFEPAT)...

OBJECTIVES: To update the Ghana PrenaBelt Trial's (GPT) primary outcome data with the latest fetal growth standard and reanalyse it. To estimate the posterior probability, under various clinically relevant prior probabilities, of maternal nightly positional therapy (PT) throughout the third-trimester having a beneficial effect on customised birth weight centile (CBWC) using Bayesian analyses. DESIGN: A reanalysis of a double-blind, sham-controlled, randomised clinical trial...

Samples of the holothurian Eupentactafraudatrix (Djakonov & Baranova in Djakonov, Baranova & Saveljeva, 1958) from the Sea of Japan were studied and the relationships of the genera Eupentacta and Sclerodactyla , as well as related taxa, were evaluated on the basis of phylogenetic analysis of the mitochondrial DNA COI and 16S rRNA genes. Using three methods, phylogenetic trees were constructed, and the degree of reliability of topological reconstructions was estimated by means of a nonparametric bootstrap test for the neighbor joining (NJ) and maximum likelihood (ML) techniques, as well as by a posteriori probability for Bayesian inference (BI) analysis...

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species...

PURPOSE: In the literature, the propriety of the meta-analytic treatment-effect produced by combining randomized controlled trials (RCT) and non-randomized studies (NRS) is questioned, given the inherent confounding in NRS that may bias the meta-analysis. The current study compared an implicitly principled pooled Bayesian meta-analytic treatment-effect with that of frequentist pooling of RCT and NRS to determine how well each approach handled the NRS bias. MATERIALS & METHODS: Binary outcome Critical-Care meta-analyses, reflecting the importance of such outcomes in Critical-Care practice, combining RCT and NRS were identified electronically...

Partially impaired sensor arrays pose a significant challenge in accurately estimating signal parameters. The occurrence of bad data is highly probable, resulting in random loss of source information and substantial performance degradation in parameter estimation. In this paper, a tensor variational sparse Bayesian learning (TVSBL) method is proposed for the estimate of direction of arrival (DOA) and polarization parameters jointly based on a conformal polarization sensitive array (CPSA), taking into account scenarios with the partially impaired sensor array...

Background : Exposure to environmental pollutants such as metals and Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) has become common and increasingly associated with a decrease in the estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), which is a marker often used to measure chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, there are limited studies involving the use of both eGFR and the urine albumin creatinine ratio (uACR), which are more comprehensive markers to determine the presence of CKD and the complexity of pollutant exposures and response interactions, especially for combined metals and PFAS, which has not been comprehensively elucidated...

BACKGROUND: We aimed to construct an expert knowledge-based Bayesian network (BN) model for assessing the overall disease burden (ODB) in (y)pN1 breast cancer patients and compare ODB across arms of ongoing trials. METHODS: Utilizing institutional data and expert surveys, we developed a BN model for (y)pN1 breast cancer. Expert-derived probabilities and disability weights for radiotherapy-related benefit (e.g., 7-year disease-free survival [DFS]) and toxicities were integrated into the model...

BACKGROUND: Currently, the effectiveness of TACE, Lenvatinib, and PD-1/L1 inhibitors used alone or in combination has been thoroughly reported. However, the differences in effectiveness between these treatment protocols require further verification. To this end, this study employs a Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare the efficacy and safety of TACE, Lenvatinib, and PD-1/L1 inhibitors, whether administered by monotherapy or in combination, providing evidence-based medicine for the treatment of unresectable HCC...

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is 1 of the most common types of arrhythmias. At present, the treatment for patients with AF mainly includes oral anticoagulants (OACs). Studies have shown that OACs are associated with cognitive decline in patients with atrial fibrillation; however, there is a lack of relevant evidence. This study used Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) to investigate the effects of different oral anticoagulants on cognitive decline in patients with AF. METHODS: We systematically searched for clinical studies on oral anticoagulants in patients with AF in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane Library as of July 3, 2023...

Bayesian inference is a popular and widely-used approach to infer phylogenies (evolutionary trees). However, despite decades of widespread application, it remains difficult to judge how well a given Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) run explores the space of phylogenetic trees. In this paper, we investigate the Monte Carlo error of phylogenies, focusing on high-dimensional summaries of the posterior distribution, including variability in estimated edge/branch (known in phylogenetics as "split") probabilities and tree probabilities, and variability in the estimated summary tree...

BACKGROUND: Using a multiple-measurement approach, we examined the real-world effectiveness of portable HEPA air filtration devices (air cleaners) in a school setting. METHODS: We collected data over 7 weeks during winter 2022/2023 in 2 Swiss secondary school classes: environmental (CO2 , particle concentrations), epidemiologic (absences related to respiratory infections), audio (coughing), and molecular (bioaerosol and saliva samples). Using a crossover design, we compared particle concentrations, coughing, and risk of infection with and without air cleaners...

The individual results of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests measured after the first pandemic wave of 2020 cannot be directly interpreted as a probability of having been infected. Plus, these results are usually returned as a binary or ternary variable, relying on predefined cut-offs. We propose a Bayesian mixture model to estimate individual infection probabilities, based on 81,797 continuous anti-spike IgG tests from Euroimmun collected in France after the first wave. This approach used serological results as a continuous variable, and was therefore not based on diagnostic cut-offs...

Reputations can foster cooperation by indirect reciprocity: if I am good to you then others will be good to me. But this mechanism for cooperation in one-shot interactions only works when people agree on who is good and who is bad. Errors in actions or assessments can produce disagreements about reputations, which can unravel the positive feedback loop between social standing and pro-social behaviour. Cooperators can end up punished and defectors rewarded. Public reputation systems and empathy are two possible mechanisms to promote agreement about reputations...