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Climatic Change

Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Veronika Huber, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Dann Mitchell, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Niilo R I Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado-Diaz, Julio Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Martina S Ragettli, Martin Röösli, Yue Leon Guo, Chang-Fu Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Michelle L Bell, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Shakoor Hajat, Andy Haines, Ben Armstrong, Kristie L Ebi, Antonio Gasparrini
The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios...
October 2018: Climatic Change
G Brooke Anderson, Keith W Oleson, Bryan Jones, Roger D Peng
Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4...
February 2018: Climatic Change
G Brooke Anderson, Keith W Oleson, Bryan Jones, Roger D Peng
Heatwaves are divided between moderate, more common heatwaves and rare "high-mortality" heatwaves that have extremely large health effects per day, which we define as heatwaves with a 20% or higher increase in mortality risk. Better projections of the expected frequency of and exposure to these separate types of heatwaves could help communities optimize heat mitigation and response plans and gauge the potential benefits of limiting climate change. Whether a heatwave is high-mortality or moderate could depend on multiple heatwave characteristics, including intensity, length, and timing...
February 2018: Climatic Change
A J Monaghan, K M Sampson, D F Steinhoff, K C Ernst, K L Ebi, B Jones, M H Hayden
The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue and chikungunya, two globally-important vector-borne diseases. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti . Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061-2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios...
February 2018: Climatic Change
K W Oleson, G B Anderson, B Jones, S A McGinnis, B Sanderson
Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8...
February 2018: Climatic Change
Raphael J Nawrotzki, Jack DeWaard, Maryia Bakhtsiyarava, Jasmine Trang Ha
Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321)...
January 2017: Climatic Change
Julia A Ekstrom, Louise Bedsworth, Amanda Fencl
Understanding resource managers' perceptions of climate change, analytic capacity, and current adaptation activities can provide insight into what can help support adaptation processes at the local level. In California, where a major drought currently demonstrates some of the hardships that could be regularly encountered under a changing climate, we present results from a survey of drinking water utilities about the perceived threat, analytic capacity, and adaptation actions related to maintaining water quality in the face of climate change...
2017: Climatic Change
Jia Coco Liu, Loretta J Mickley, Melissa P Sulprizio, Francesca Dominici, Xu Yue, Keita Ebisu, Georgiana Brooke Anderson, Rafi F A Khan, Mercedes A Bravo, Michelle L Bell
Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model...
October 2016: Climatic Change
Carina J Gronlund, Antonella Zanobetti, Gregory A Wellenius, Joel D Schwartz, Marie S O'Neill
BACKGROUND: Extreme heat (EH) is a growing concern with climate change, and protecting human health requires knowledge of vulnerability factors. We evaluated whether associations between EH (maximum temperature > 97th percentile) and hospitalization for renal, heat and respiratory diseases among people ≥ 65 years differed by individual and area-level characteristics. METHODS: We used Medicare billing records, airport weather data, U.S. Census data and satellite land cover imagery in 109 US cities, May-September, 1992-2006, in a time-stratified case-crossover design...
June 2016: Climatic Change
Clark Gray, Erika Wise
Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification...
April 2016: Climatic Change
Anne M Waple, Sarah M Champion, Kenneth E Kunkel, Curt Tilmes
The third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) included goals for becoming a more timely, inclusive, rigorous, and sustained process, and for serving a wider variety of decision makers. In order to accomplish these goals, it was necessary to deliberately design an information management strategy that could serve multiple stakeholders and manage different types of information - from highly mature government-supported climate science data, to isolated practitioner-generated case study information - and to do so in ways that are consistent and appropriate for a highly influential assessment...
March 2016: Climatic Change
M A Hoque, P F D Scheelbeek, P Vineis, A E Khan, K M Ahmed, A P Butler
Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, is provided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed at an individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources in South and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, most dramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatial vulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variability and climate change along the (ca...
2016: Climatic Change
Thomas Mendlik, Andreas Gobiet
In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis...
2016: Climatic Change
Richard H Waring, Nicholas C Coops
A lengthening of the fire season, coupled with higher temperatures, increases the probability of fires throughout much of western North America. Although regional variation in the frequency of fires is well established, attempts to predict the occurrence of fire at a spatial resolution <10 km(2) have generally been unsuccessful. We hypothesized that predictions of fires might be improved if depletion of soil water reserves were coupled more directly to maximum leaf area index (LAImax) and stomatal behavior...
2016: Climatic Change
Kenneth E Kunkel, Richard Moss, Adam Parris
Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success...
2016: Climatic Change
Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares, María Elena Méndez-López, Isabel Díaz-Reviriego, Marissa F McBride, Aili Pyhälä, Antoni Rosell-Melé, Victoria Reyes-García
Indigenous societies hold a great deal of ethnoclimatological knowledge that could potentially be of key importance for both climate change science and local adaptation; yet, we lack studies examining how such knowledge might be shaped by media communication. This study systematically investigates the interplay between local observations of climate change and the reception of media information amongst the Tsimane', an indigenous society of Bolivian Amazonia where the scientific discourse of anthropogenic climate change has barely reached...
July 1, 2015: Climatic Change
S Lorenz, S Dessai, J Paavola, P M Forster
Many European countries have developed National Adaptation Strategies (NAS) to guide adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. There is a need for more structured communication of the uncertainties related to future climate and its impacts so that adaptation actions can be planned and implemented effectively and efficiently. We develop a novel uncertainty assessment framework for comparing approaches to the inclusion and communication of physical science uncertainty, and use it to analyse ten European NAS...
2015: Climatic Change
S Saux Picart, J I Allen, M Butenschön, Y Artioli, L de Mora, S Wakelin, J Holt
Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status...
2015: Climatic Change
R Dunford, P A Harrison, J Jäger, M D A Rounsevell, R Tinch
Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach...
2015: Climatic Change
Hanqin Tian, Guangsheng Chen, Chaoqun Lu, Xiaofeng Xu, Daniel J Hayes, Wei Ren, Shufen Pan, Deborah N Huntzinger, Steven C Wofsy
The terrestrial ecosystems of North America have been identified as a sink of atmospheric CO2 though there is no consensus on the magnitude. However, the emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) may offset or even overturn the climate cooling effect induced by the CO2 sink. Using a coupled biogeochemical model, in this study, we have estimated the combined global warming potentials (GWP) of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in North American terrestrial ecosystems and quantified the relative contributions of environmental factors to the GWP changes during 1979-2010...
2015: Climatic Change
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