Journal of Climate

Spectral PCA (sPCA), in contrast to classical PCA, offers the advantage of identifying organized spatiotemporal patterns within specific frequency bands and extracting dynamical modes. However, the unavoidable trade-off between frequency resolution and robustness of the PCs leads to high sensitivity to noise and overfitting, which limits the interpretation of the sPCA results. We propose herein a simple nonparametric implementation of sPCA using the continuous analytic Morlet wavelet as a robust estimator of the cross-spectral matrices with good frequency resolution...

Understanding the physical drivers of seasonal hydroclimatic variability and improving predictive skill remains a challenge with important socioeconomic and environmental implications for many regions around the world. Physics-based deterministic models show limited ability to predict precipitation as the lead time increases, due to imperfect representation of physical processes and incomplete knowledge of initial conditions. Similarly, statistical methods drawing upon established climate teleconnections have low prediction skill due to the complex nature of the climate system...

Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U...

An accurate quantification of the stratospheric ozone feedback in climate change simulations requires knowledge of the ozone response to increased greenhouse gases. Here, we present an analysis of the ozone layer response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 concentrations in four chemistry-climate models. We show that increased CO2 levels lead to a decrease in ozone concentrations in the tropical lower stratosphere, and an increase over the high latitudes and throughout the upper stratosphere. This pattern is robust across all models examined here, although important inter-model differences in the magnitude of the response are found...

This study explores the feasibility of predicting subdaily variations and the climatological spatial patterns of rain in the tropical Pacific from atmospheric profiles using a set of generalized linear models: logistic regression for rain occurrence and gamma regression for rain amount. The prediction is separated into different rain types from TRMM satellite radar observations (stratiform, deep convective, and shallow convective) and CAM5 simulations (large-scale and convective). Environmental variables from MERRA-2 and CAM5 are used as predictors for TRMM and CAM5 rainfall, respectively...

This study investigates changes to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in response to greenhouse-gas induced warming during the 21st century. Changes in the MJO's amplitude, phase speed, and zonal scale are examined in five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that demonstrate superior MJO characteristics. Under warming, the CMIP5 models exhibit a robust increase in the spectral power of planetary-scale, intraseasonal, eastward-propagating (MJO) precipitation anomalies (~10.9 %K-1 )...

Modern agricultural land cover and management are important as regional climate forcings. Previous work has shown that land cover change can significantly impact key climate variables, including turbulent fluxes, precipitation, and surface temperature. However, fewer studies have investigated how intensive crop management can impact background climate conditions, such as the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and evaporative regime. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model with modified vegetation characteristics to represent modern crop cover and management, using observed crop-specific leaf area indexes and calendars...

Tropospheric features preceding sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are identified using a large compendium of events obtained from a chemistry-climate model. In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where ~60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively...

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)-partial radiative perturbation [PRP (CERES-PRP)] methodology applies partial-radiative-perturbation-like calculations to observational datasets to directly isolate the individual cloud, atmospheric, and surface property contributions to the variability of the radiation budget. The results of these calculations can further be used to construct radiative kernels. A suite of monthly mean observation-based inputs are used for the radiative transfer, including cloud properties from either the diurnally resolved passive-sensor-based CERES synoptic (SYN) data or the combination of the CloudSat cloud radar and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations ( CALIPSO ) lidar...

Observations from a geostationary satellite are used to describe the lifecycle of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), their associated anvil clouds, and their effects on the radiation balance over the warm pool of the tropical west Pacific Ocean. In their developing stages, MCS primarily consist of clouds that are optically thick and have a negative net cloud radiative effect (CRE). As MCS age, ice crystals in the anvil become larger, the cloud top lowers somewhat, and clouds with neutral and positive net CRE become more common...

Ten years of terrestrial water storage anomalies from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) were used to estimate high latitude snowfall accumulation using a mass balance approach. The estimates were used to assess two common gauge-undercatch correction factors (CFs): Legates climatology (CF-L) utilized in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and Fuchs dynamic correction model (CF-F) used in the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Monitoring product. The two CFs can be different by more than 50%...

The factors impacting western U.S. winter precipitation during the 2015/16 El Niño are investigated using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) data, and simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model forced with specified sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Results reveal that the simulated response to the tropical Pacific SST associated with the 2015/16 El Niño was to produce wetter than normal conditions over much of the west coast including California - a result at odds with the negative precipitation anomalies observed over much of the Southwestern U...

Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Inter-comparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation...

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis...

Much of the eastern United States (US) experienced increased precipitation over the 20th century. Characterizing these trends and their causes is critical for assessing future hydroclimate risks. Here, US precipitation trends are analyzed during 1895-2016, revealing that fall precipitation in the southeastern region north of the Gulf of Mexico (SE-Gulf) increased by nearly 40%, primarily increasing after the mid-1900s. As fall is the climatological dry season in the SE-Gulf and precipitation in other seasons changed insignificantly, the seasonal precipitation cycle diminished substantially...

The Multi-Sensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP), an updated and enhanced version of the University of Wisconsin (UWisc) cloud liquid water path (CLWP) climatology, currently provides 29 years (1988 - 2016) of monthly gridded (1°) oceanic CLWP information constructed using Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) inter-calibrated 0.25°-resolution retrievals. Satellite sources include SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, WindSat, SSMIS, AMSR-2 and GMI. To mitigate spurious CLWP trends, the climatology is corrected for drifting satellite overpass times by simultaneously solving for the monthly average CLWP and monthly-mean diurnal cycle...

Climate models project significant twenty-first-century declines in water availability over the American West from anthropogenic warming. However, the physical mechanisms underpinning this response are poorly characterized, as are the uncertainties from vegetation's modulation of evaporative losses. To understand the drivers and uncertainties of future hydroclimate in the American West, a 35-member single model ensemble is used to examine the response of summer soil moisture and runoff to anthropogenic forcing...

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), is NASA's latest reanalysis for the satellite era (1980 onward) using the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), Earth system model. MERRA-2 provides several improvements over its predecessor (MERRA-1), including aerosol assimilation for the entire period. MERRA-2 assimilates bias-corrected aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments...

The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products...

The 2011-2016 Californian drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the 21st century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the aridity changes driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming-induced increased evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions in which aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO, and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability...