Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical Methodology

Identification and estimation of causal peer effects are challenging in observational studies for two reasons. The first is the identification challenge due to unmeasured network confounding, for example, homophily bias and contextual confounding. The second is network dependence of observations. We establish a framework that leverages a pair of negative control outcome and exposure variables (double negative controls) to non-parametrically identify causal peer effects in the presence of unmeasured network confounding...

The analysis of excursion sets in imaging data is essential to a wide range of scientific disciplines such as neuroimaging, climatology, and cosmology. Despite growing literature, there is little published concerning the comparison of processes that have been sampled across the same spatial region but which reflect different study conditions. Given a set of asymptotically Gaussian random fields, each corresponding to a sample acquired for a different study condition, this work aims to provide confidence statements about the intersection, or union, of the excursion sets across all fields...

Delineating associations between images and covariates is a central aim of imaging studies. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel non-parametric approach in the framework of spatially varying coefficient models, where the spatially varying functions are estimated through deep neural networks. Our method incorporates spatial smoothness, handles subject heterogeneity, and provides straightforward interpretations. It is also highly flexible and accurate, making it ideal for capturing complex association patterns...

Predicting sets of outcomes-instead of unique outcomes-is a promising solution to uncertainty quantification in statistical learning. Despite a rich literature on constructing prediction sets with statistical guarantees, adapting to unknown covariate shift-a prevalent issue in practice-poses a serious unsolved challenge. In this article, we show that prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantee are uninformative and propose a novel flexible distribution-free method, PredSet-1Step, to efficiently construct prediction sets with an asymptotic coverage guarantee under unknown covariate shift...

The Markov property is widely imposed in analysis of time series data. Correspondingly, testing the Markov property, and relatedly, inferring the order of a Markov model, are of paramount importance. In this article, we propose a nonparametric test for the Markov property in high-dimensional time series via deep conditional generative learning. We also apply the test sequentially to determine the order of the Markov model. We show that the test controls the type-I error asymptotically, and has the power approaching one...

We consider identification and inference about mean functionals of observed covariates and an outcome variable subject to non-ignorable missingness. By leveraging a shadow variable, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition for identification of the mean functional even if the full data distribution is not identified. We further characterize a necessary condition for <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msqrt><mml:mi>n</mml:mi></mml:msqrt></mml:math>-estimability of the mean functional...

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/jrsssb/qkad051.].

Testing the homogeneity between two samples of functional data is an important task. While this is feasible for intensely measured functional data, we explain why it is challenging for sparsely measured functional data and show what can be done for such data. In particular, we show that testing the marginal homogeneity based on point-wise distributions is feasible under some mild constraints and propose a new two-sample statistic that works well with both intensively and sparsely measured functional data. The proposed test statistic is formulated upon energy distance, and the convergence rate of the test statistic to its population version is derived along with the consistency of the associated permutation test...

We propose a test-based elastic integrative analysis of the randomised trial and real-world data to estimate treatment effect heterogeneity with a vector of known effect modifiers. When the real-world data are not subject to bias, our approach combines the trial and real-world data for efficient estimation. Utilising the trial design, we construct a test to decide whether or not to use real-world data. We characterise the asymptotic distribution of the test-based estimator under local alternatives. We provide a data-adaptive procedure to select the test threshold that promises the smallest mean square error and an elastic confidence interval with a good finite-sample coverage property...

Series of univariate distributions indexed by equally spaced time points are ubiquitous in applications and their analysis constitutes one of the challenges of the emerging field of distributional data analysis. To quantify such distributional time series, we propose a class of intrinsic autoregressive models that operate in the space of optimal transport maps. The autoregressive transport models that we introduce here are based on regressing optimal transport maps on each other, where predictors can be transport maps from an overall barycenter to a current distribution or transport maps between past consecutive distributions of the distributional time series...

We formulate the estimation of monotone response surface of multiple factors as the inverse of an iteration of partially ordered classifier ensembles. Each ensemble (called PIPE-classifiers) is a projection of Bayes classifiers on the constrained space. We prove the inverse of PIPE-classifiers (iPIPE) exists, and propose algorithms to efficiently compute iPIPE by reducing the space over which optimisation is conducted. The methods are applied in analysis and simulation settings where the surface dimension is higher than what the isotonic regression literature typically considers...

We present a framework for using existing external data to identify and estimate the relative efficiency of a covariate-adjusted estimator compared to an unadjusted estimator in a future randomized trial. Under conditions, these relative efficiencies approximate the ratio of sample sizes needed to achieve a desired power. We develop semiparametrically efficient estimators of the relative efficiencies for several treatment effect estimands of interest with either fully or partially observed outcomes, allowing for the application of flexible statistical learning tools to estimate the nuisance functions...

We study the problem of high-dimensional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with missing observations. In a simple, homogeneous observation model, we show that an existing observed-proportion weighted (OPW) estimator of the leading principal components can (nearly) attain the minimax optimal rate of convergence, which exhibits an interesting phase transition. However, deeper investigation reveals that, particularly in more realistic settings where the observation probabilities are heterogeneous, the empirical performance of the OPW estimator can be unsatisfactory; moreover, in the noiseless case, it fails to provide exact recovery of the principal components...

Factor analysis is often used to assess whether a single univariate latent variable is sufficient to explain most of the covariance among a set of indicators for some underlying construct. When evidence suggests that a single factor is adequate, research often proceeds by using a univariate summary of the indicators in subsequent research. Implicit in such practices is the assumption that it is the underlying latent, rather than the indicators, that is causally efficacious. The assumption that the indicators do not have effects on anything subsequent, and that they are themselves only affected by antecedents through the underlying latent is a strong assumption, effectively imposing a structural interpretation on the latent factor model...

We provide a computationally and statistically efficient method for estimating the parameters of a stochastic covariance model observed on a regular spatial grid in any number of dimensions. Our proposed method, which we call the Debiased Spatial Whittle likelihood, makes important corrections to the well-known Whittle likelihood to account for large sources of bias caused by boundary effects and aliasing. We generalize the approach to flexibly allow for significant volumes of missing data including those with lower-dimensional substructure, and for irregular sampling boundaries...

Gaussian processes (GPs) are common components in Bayesian non-parametric models having a rich methodological literature and strong theoretical grounding. The use of exact GPs in Bayesian models is limited to problems containing several thousand observations due to their prohibitive computational demands. We develop a posterior sampling algorithm using <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mi>H</mml:mi></mml:math> -matrix approximations that scales at <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www...

Recurrent events data frequently arise in chronic disease studies, providing rich information on disease progression. The concept of latent class offers a sensible perspective to characterize complex population heterogeneity in recurrent event trajectories that may not be adequately captured by a single regression model. However, the development of latent class methods for recurrent events data has been sparse, typically requiring strong parametric assumptions and involving algorithmic issues. In this work, we investigate latent class analysis of recurrent events data based on flexible semiparametric multiplicative modeling...

While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test the null hypothesis that there is no change in mean around an estimated changepoint. We further show that it is possible to efficiently carry out this framework in the case of changepoints estimated by binary segmentation and its variants, ℓ 0 segmentation, or the fused lasso...

In many contemporary applications, large amounts of unlabeled data are readily available while labeled examples are limited. There has been substantial interest in semi-supervised learning (SSL) which aims to leverage unlabeled data to improve estimation or prediction. However, current SSL literature focuses primarily on settings where labeled data is selected uniformly at random from the population of interest. Stratified sampling, while posing additional analytical challenges, is highly applicable to many real world problems...

Effect modification occurs when the effect of the treatment on an outcome varies according to the level of other covariates and often has important implications in decision-making. When there are tens or hundreds of covariates, it becomes necessary to use the observed data to select a simpler model for effect modification and then make valid statistical inference. We propose a two-stage procedure to solve this problem. First, we use Robinson's transformation to decouple the nuisance parameters from the treatment effect of interest and use machine learning algorithms to estimate the nuisance parameters...