Clinical prediction rules

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to externally validate and assess the robustness of 2 nomograms designed to predict the probability of lymphatic dissemination (LD) for patients with early-stage endometrioid endometrial cancer. STUDY DESIGN: Using a prospective multicenter database, we assessed the discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of 2 nomograms in patients with surgically treated early-stage endometrioid endometrial cancer. RESULTS: Among the 322 eligible patients identified, the overall LD rate was 9...

We aim to externally validate the Ottawa subarachnoid hemorrhage (OSAH) clinical decision rule. This rule identifies patients with acute nontraumatic headache who require further investigation. We conducted a medical record review of all patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with headache from January 2011 to November 2013. Per the OSAH rule, patients with any of the following predictors require further investigation: age 40 years or older, neck pain, stiffness or limited flexion, loss of consciousness, onset during exertion, or thunderclap...

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the severity of delirium is essential to advancing clinical care by improved understanding of delirium effect, prognosis, pathophysiology, and response to treatment. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a new delirium severity measure (CAM-S) based on the Confusion Assessment Method. DESIGN: Validation analysis in 2 independent cohorts. SETTING: Three academic medical centers. PATIENTS: The first cohort included 300 patients aged 70 years or older scheduled for major surgery...

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology and time spectrum of delirium using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria and to validate a tool for delirium assessment in patients in the acute poststroke period. DESIGN: A prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: The stroke unit of a university hospital. PATIENTS: A consecutive series of 129 patients with stroke (with infarction or intracerebral hemorrhage, 57 women and 72 men; mean age, 72...

BACKGROUND: Delirium is common, leads to other adverse outcomes, and is costly. However, it often remains unrecognized in most clinical settings. The Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) is the most widely used diagnostic algorithm, and operationalizing its features would be a substantial advance for clinical care. OBJECTIVE: To derive the 3D-CAM, a new 3-minute diagnostic assessment for CAM-defined delirium, and validate it against a clinical reference standard. DESIGN: Derivation and validation study...

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the Wells clinical prediction rule for pulmonary embolism (PE), which produces a point score based on clinical features and the likelihood of diagnoses other than PE, combined with normal D-dimer testing can be used to exclude PE in older unhospitalized adults. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Primary care and nursing homes. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults (≥60) clinically suspected of having a PE (N = 294, mean age 76, 44% residing in a nursing home)...

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the Ottawa Knee Rules when they were applied to children. The secondary objective was to determine post hoc whether use of the rules would reduce the number of knee radiographs ordered. METHODS: This prospective, multicenter validation study included children aged 2 to 16 years who presented to the emergency department with a knee injury sustained in the preceding 7 days...

BACKGROUND: The Ottawa knee rule (OKR), a clinical decision aid is used to reduce unnecessary radiography. It is not clear whether this rule can be applied to children. OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the OKR had adequate sensitivity and acceptable specificity in children to advocate widespread use. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of observational studies that examined the diagnostic characteristics of the OKR in children...

PURPOSE: The aim of this present study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility of 2 clinical decision rules (the Ottawa Knee Rules [OKR] and Pittsburgh Decision Rules [PDR]) developed for selective use of x-rays in the evaluation of isolated knee trauma. Application of a decision rule leads to a more efficient evaluation of knee injuries and a reduction in health care costs. The diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility are compared in this study. METHODS: A cross-sectional interobserver study was conducted in the emergency department of an urban teaching hospital from October 2008 to July 2009...

BACKGROUND: Existing models for outcome after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) lack assessment of long-term prognosis. Our goal was to derive 1- and 5-year mortality and mortality/myocardial infarction (MI) risk models for PCI outcomes from simple, easily obtainable clinical and laboratory variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the Mayo Clinic registry, we analyzed long-term mortality and mortality/MI following PCIs on 9165 unique patients from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2007...

BACKGROUND: Current risk models predict in-hospital mortality after either coronary artery bypass graft surgery or percutaneous coronary interventions separately, yet the overlap suggests that the same variables can define the risks of alternative coronary reperfusion therapies. Our goal was to seek a preprocedure risk model that can predict in-hospital mortality after either percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: We tested the ability of the recently validated, integer-based Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS) for percutaneous coronary intervention, which is based solely on preprocedure variables (age, creatinine, ejection fraction, myocardial infarction < or = 24 hours, shock, congestive heart failure, and peripheral vascular disease), to predict in-hospital mortality among 370,793 patients in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons database undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery from 2004 to 2006...

OBJECTIVES: We sought to validate the recently proposed Mayo Clinic risk score model for complications after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), using an independent data set. BACKGROUND: The Mayo Clinic risk score has eight simple clinical and angiographic variables for the prediction of complications defined as either death, Q-wave myocardial infarction, emergent or urgent coronary artery bypass graft surgery, or cerebrovascular accident after PCI. External validation using an independent data set is lacking...

OBJECTIVE: To determine the causes and risk of death after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and to compare the discriminatory ability of the New York State Risk Score (NYSRS) with the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied in-hospital and 30-day mortality after PCI in 4898 patients treated at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2010, to validate the NYSRS equation with recalibrated predicted probabilities of death...

The early diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains challenging, and a considerable proportion of patients are diagnosed with "possible" ACS on admission. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE/GRACE(2)) and Canadian Registry of Acute Coronary Events (CANRACE) enrolled 16,618 Canadian patients with suspected ACS in 1999 to 2008. We compared the demographic and clinical characteristics, use of cardiac procedures, prognostic accuracy of the GRACE risk score, and in-hospital outcomes between patients given an admission diagnosis of "definite" versus "possible" ACS by the treating physician...

OBJECTIVE: : The ability to risk stratify patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with potential acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is critical. Several risk scores for patients with definite ACS have been developed, but only the TIMI risk score has been shown to risk stratify ED patients with potential ACS. We compared the prognostic value of the GRACE and PURSUIT risk scores to the TIMI score in the broader ED patient population presenting with potential ACS. METHODS: : We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study that enrolled patients who presented to the ED with potential ACS...

BACKGROUND: The Braunwald classification and TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) risk score are used to stratify cardiovascular risk in patients with unstable angina (UA). However, these scores have a limited capacity in the practice of cardiology. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to develop a new score, based on blood biomarkers and coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) characteristics, for patients with UA. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study group consisted of 201 patients with confirmed UA...

The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score, derived from unstable angina/non-ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction patient population, predicts 14-day cardiovascular events. It has been validated in emergency department (ED) patients with potential acute coronary syndrome with respect to 30-day outcomes. Our objective was to determine whether the initial TIMI score could risk stratify ED patients with potential acute coronary syndrome with respect to the 1-year outcomes. This was a prospective cohort study of patients presenting to the ED with chest pain who underwent electrocardiography...

OBJECTIVES: This study attempted to prospectively validate a modified Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score that classifies patients with either ST-segment deviation or cardiac troponin elevation as high risk. The objectives were to determine the ability of the modified score to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients with chest pain and to identify patients safe for early discharge. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study in an urban academic ED over a 9-month period...

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score is a 7-item tool derived from trials of patients with unstable angina/non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction for risk stratification with respect to outcomes. It has been retrospectively evaluated in emergency department (ED) patients with potential acute coronary syndrome but has not been prospectively validated in this patient population. To validate the use of the TIMI risk score in the ED, we prospectively assess its potential utility in a broad ED chest pain patient population...

AIMS: Regarding prognosis, patients with a non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are a very heterogeneous population, with varying risks of early and long-term adverse events. Early risk stratification at admission seems to be essential for a tailored therapeutic strategy. We sought to compare the prognostic value of three ACS risk scores (RSs) and their ability to predict benefit from myocardial revascularization performed during initial hospitalization. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 460 consecutive patients admitted to our coronary care unit with an ACS [age: 63+/-11 years, 21...