Disease and injury in California with projections to the year 2007. Implications for medical education.

In this article, as part of an evaluation of the future of medical education in California, we characterize the distribution of disease and injury in California; identify major factors that affect the epidemiology of disease and injury in California, and project the burden of disease and injury for California's population to the year 2007. Our goal is to elucidate the major causes of illness and disability at present and in the near future in order to focus state resources on the interventions likely to have the greatest impact. Data from various governmental agencies were utilized; the base year, 1993, is the most recent year with sufficient information available when this report was prepared. Several major risk factors have decreased, including smoking (30% decline from 1984 to 1993) and drinking and driving. However, hypertension prevalence has not changed, and overweight has increased dramatically. Poverty continues to burden about 15% of Californians, with poverty highest among children. During 1993, 220,271 Californians died, with 3 major causes accounting for 61% of these deaths: coronary heart disease (31%), cancer (23%), and stroke (7%). In terms of potential years of life lost (years lost before age 65), the most important causes of death in 1993 were unintentional injury (756 years lost/100,000 population), cancer (632 years), and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS; 491 years). Mortality rates were highest among blacks and lowest among Asians. Overall mortality in California has been declining for decades; in just 1 decade, from 1980 to 1991, mortality declined from 780 to 680 deaths per 100,000 population. Several major causes of death have declined, including coronary heart disease, stroke, unintentional injury, cirrhosis, and suicide, while others have increased, for example, chronic obstructive lung disease and diabetes mellitus. Death from AIDS increased dramatically in the past decade, but is leveling off, and death from cancer is beginning to decline. Rates for overall mortality and morbidity, and for most specific conditions, should continue to decline. A projected 28% population increase by 2007 will yield a corresponding increase in the absolute level of disease cases and death; a disproportionate increase in younger and older groups will yield increased conditions affecting young (unintentional injury, AIDS) and older (heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes mellitus) people. Californians should experience overall improved health in coming years, reaping benefits of reduced environmental and behavioral risk factors as well as improved medical treatment and rehabilitation. Coordinated strategies for health promotion, disease prevention, delivery of medical treatment, and rehabilitation are needed to maintain and improve present levels of health across the life span.