Long-term prognosis of first-ever lacunar strokes. A hospital-based study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Information concerning the long-term prognosis of lacunar strokes is still limited and has shown different results. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term prognosis of first-ever lacunar strokes and the possible role of clinical prognostic factors and different pathogenic mechanisms.

METHODS: Between March 1990 and November 1993, a cohort of consecutive patients presenting with first-ever lacunar infarcts was prospectively evaluated after stroke onset at day 0 to 3 and/or day 7, every 3 months up to 1 year, and every 6 months thereafter. All patients were studied according to a protocol that included demographic and clinical data, neurological examination, Toronto Stroke Scale, Barthel Index, Rankin Scale, CT scan, routine laboratory workup, electrocardiogram, carotid duplex scanning, and echocardiogram. More recently, patients have also been evaluated with transcranial Doppler ultrasonography. Recurrent strokes, myocardial infarction, and death were registered through direct observation, chart review, or interviews with the attending physician or family members.

RESULTS: One hundred forty-five patients-94 (65%) with pure hemiparesis, 33 (23%) with sensorimotor stroke, 11 (8%) with ataxic hemiparesis, 5 (3%) with pure sensory stroke, and 2(1%) with dysarthria-clumsy hand syndrome-were followed for a median period of 39 months. During follow-up ther were 17 deaths (3 vascular), 30 recurrent strokes (1 fatal), and 4 myocardial infarctions. Five-year survival rate free of recurrent stroke was 63% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52% to 73%), while 5-year survival rate was 86% (95% CI, 78% to 91%). Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that age (p=.02) was the only significant predictor of survival free of recurrent stroke. Age (P<.001) and the degree of neurological dysfunction and functional disability at 7 days after the index stroke measured by the Toronto Stroke Scale (P=.05) and a Barthel Index score <40 (P=.04) were the only significant predictors of death. The 5-year probability rate of stroke-free recurrence was 72% (95% CI, 60% to 81%). Sixty-three percent of the first recurrent strokes were lacunar infarcts. When clinical, laboratory, and CT data as well as possible etiopathogenic mechanisms of lacunar strokes were considered, Cox proportional hazards analysis could not identify any predictor of stroke recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that lacunar infarcts are associated with low stroke recurrence and mortality rates. In our series, the majority of first recurrent strokes were also lacunar infarcts. Age, degree of neurological dysfunction, and functional disability at day 7 after the index stroke were significant predictors of death.