Explainable artificial intelligence for LDL cholesterol prediction and classification.

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring LDL-C levels is essential in clinical practice because there is a direct relation between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels and atherosclerotic heart disease risk. Therefore, measurement or estimate of LDL-C is critical. The present study aims to evaluate Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Explainable AI (XAI) methodologies in predicting LDL-C levels while emphasizing the interpretability of these predictions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed data from the Laboratory Information System (LIS) of Ankara Etlik City Hospital (AECH). We included 60.217 patients with standard lipid profiles (total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides) paired with same-day direct LDL-C results. AI methodologies, such as Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forests (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Decision Trees (DT), were used to predict LDL-C and compared directly measured and calculated LDL-C with formulas. XAI techniques such as Shapley additive annotation (SHAP) and locally interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) were used to interpret AI models and improve their explainability.

RESULTS: Predicted LDL-C values using AI, especially RF or GB, showed a stronger correlation with direct measurement LDL-C values than calculated LDL-C values with formulas. TC was shown to be the most influential factor in LDL-C prediction using SHAP and LIME. The agreement between the treatment groups based on NCEP ATPIII guidelines according to measured LDL-C and the LDL-C groups obtained with AI was higher than that obtained with formulas.

CONCLUSIONS: It can be concluded that AI is not only a reliable method but also an explainable method for LDL-C estimation and classification.