Estimating baseline creatinine levels based on the kidney parenchymal volume.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) diagnosis often lacks a baseline serum creatinine (Cr) value. Our study aimed to create a regression equation linking kidney morphology to function in kidney donors and chronic kidney disease patients. We also sought to estimate baseline Cr in minimal change disease (MCD) patients, a common AKI-predisposing condition.

METHODS: We analyzed 119 participants (mean age 60 years, 50% male, 40% donors) with CT scans, dividing them into derivation and validation groups. An equation based on kidney parenchymal volume (PV) was developed in the derivation group and validated in the validation group. We estimated baseline Cr in 43 MCD patients (mean age 45 years, 61% male) using the PV-based equation and compared with their 6 month post-MCD onset Cr values.

RESULTS: In the derivation group, the equation for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was: eGFR (mL/min/1.73m2 ) = 0.375 × PV (cm3 ) + (- 0.395) × age (years) + (- 2.93) × male sex + (- 13.3) × hypertension + (- 14.0) × diabetes + (- 0.210) × height (cm) + 82.0 (intercept). In the validation group, the eGFR and estimated Cr values correlated well with the measured values (r = 0.46, p = 0.01; r = 0.51, p = 0.004, respectively). In the MCD group, the baseline Cr values were significantly correlated with the estimated baseline Cr values (r = 0.52, p < 0.001), effectively diagnosing AKI (kappa = 0.76, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: The PV-based regression equation established in this study holds promise for estimating baseline Cr values and diagnosing AKI in patients with MCD. Further validation in diverse AKI populations is warranted.