Establishment of a model to predict mortality after decompression craniotomy for traumatic brain injury.

BACKGROUND: The mortality rate of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) is still high even while undergoing decompressive craniectomy (DC), and the expensive treatment costs bring huge economic burden to the families of patients.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify preoperative indicators that influence patient outcomes and to develop a risk model for predicting patient mortality by a retrospective analysis of TBI patients undergoing DC.

METHODS: A total of 288 TBI patients treated with DC, admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical School from August 2015 to April 2021, were used for univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine the risk factors for death after DC in TBI patients. We also built a risk model for the identified risk factors and conducted internal verification and model evaluation.

RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis identified four risk factors: Glasgow Coma Scale, age, activated partial thrombin time, and mean CT value of the superior sagittal sinus. These risk factors can be obtained before DC. In addition, we also developed a 3-month mortality risk model and conducted a bootstrap 1000 resampling internal validation, with C-indices of 0.852 and 0.845, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: We developed a risk model that has clinical significance for the early identification of patients who will still die after DC. Interestingly, we also identified a new early risk factor for TBI patients after DC, that is, preoperative mean CT value of the superior sagittal sinus (p < .05).