Hazard function analysis of prognosis after recurrent colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Mean survival time (MST) is used as the indicator of prognosis in patients with a colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence. The present study aimed to visualize the changes in death risk after a CRC recurrence using hazard function analysis (HFA) to provide an alternative prognostic indicator to MST.

METHODS: The medical records of 725 consecutive patients with a recurrence following R0 radical surgery for CRC were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS: The five-year, post-recurrence survival rate was 37.8%, and the MST was 3.5 years while the risk of death peaked at 2.9 years post-recurrence. Seven variables were found to predict short-term survival, including the number of metastatic organs ≥ 2, non-surgical treatment for the recurrence, and a short interval before recurrence. In patients with a recurrence in one organ, the MST was four years, the peak time of death predicted by HFA was 2.9 years, and the five-year survival rate was 45.8%. In patients with a surgical resection of the recurrence, the MST was 8 years, the peak time of death was 3.3 years, and the five-year survival rate was 62%.

CONCLUSIONS: The present study established a novel method of assessing changes in mortality risk over time using HFA in patients with a CRC recurrence.