Changing trends in disease burden of lung cancer in China from 1990-2019 and following 15-year prediction.

BACKGROUND: As lung cancer becomes a primary source of death in China, investigation on incidence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is of great significance to optimize prevention measures and allocation of healthcare resources.

METHODS: We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to evaluate the incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Analysis of lung cancer risk factor-related death rate and DALYs was performed. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated. The incidence trend of lung cancer from 2020 to 2034 was predicted by the Nordpred age-period-cohort (APC) model.

RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 30.2/100000 (95 % UI 26.2-34.3) in 1990 to 41.7/100000 (95 % UI 35.2-48.8) in 2019, and EAPC was 1.33 (95 % CI 1.16-1.49). From 1990 to 2019, men were noted for the highest incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs rate across three age groups (15-49 years, 50-69 years, and over 70). During this period, the ASIR of lung cancer in females was always lower than that in males. The predominant risk factors of lung cancer were smoking, air pollution, and diet, among which smoking was the most significant one. The analysis results showed that new cases and deaths may increase in the following 15 years since 2020 in the context of lung cancer.

CONCLUSION: Faced with the heavy burden of lung cancer, China must issue corresponding policies and roll out prevention avenues against smoking and air pollution.