Anthropometric, dietary, and lifestyle factors and risk of advanced thyroid cancer: The NIH-AARP diet and health cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer have low-risk disease, but some have a higher risk for persistent or recurrent disease and even death from thyroid cancer. Few studies have evaluated potential anthropometric, lifestyle, or dietary risk factors for advanced or aggressive types of thyroid cancer.

METHODS: Using data from a large US cohort study, we examined associations for high-risk thyroid cancer (HRTC) and, separately, low-risk thyroid cancer (LRTC) in relation to anthropometric factors, diet, smoking, and alcohol consumption. The National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons (NIH-AARP) Diet and Health Study included 304,122 participants (124,656 women and 179,466 men) without a history of cancer who completed a mailed questionnaire in 1996-1997 and were followed for cancer incidence through 2011 via linkages with state cancer registries. Hazard ratios (HRs) for anthropometric, dietary, and lifestyle factors in relation to HRTC or LRTC, defined using guidance from the American Thyroid Association initial risk of recurrence classification, were calculated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS: During follow-up (median = 10.1 years), 426 participants were diagnosed with HRTC (n = 95) or LRTC (n = 331). In models combining men and women, baseline waist circumference (per 5 cm, HR = 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.27) and weight gain from age 18 years to baseline age (per 5 kg, HR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28) were positively associated with risk of HRTC but not LRTC. In contrast, vegetable intake (per cup equivalents/day, HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.30), cigarette smoking (current vs. never, HR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.23-0.68), and alcohol consumption (per drink/day, HR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.97) were associated with risk of LRTC but not HRTC. The association of LRTC risk with vegetable intake was limited to men, and that of current smoking was more pronounced in women.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that greater waist circumference and adulthood weight gain are associated with thyroid cancers at higher risk for recurrence. These results may have implications for the primary prevention of advanced thyroid cancer.