How well can U.S. military veterans' suicidal ideation be predicted from static and change-based indicators of their psychosocial well-being as they adapt to civilian life?

BACKGROUND: Identifying predictors of suicidal ideation (SI) is important to inform suicide prevention efforts, particularly among high-risk populations like military veterans. Although many studies have examined the contribution of psychopathology to veterans' SI, fewer studies have examined whether experiencing good psychosocial well-being with regard to multiple aspects of life can protect veterans from SI or evaluated whether SI risk prediction can be enhanced by considering change in life circumstances along with static factors.

METHODS: The study drew from a longitudinal population-based sample of 7141 U.S. veterans assessed throughout the first three years after leaving military service. Machine learning methods (cross-validated random forests) were applied to examine the predictive utility of static and change-based well-being indicators to veterans' SI, as compared to psychopathology predictors.

RESULTS: Although psychopathology models performed better, the full set of well-being predictors demonstrated acceptable discrimination in predicting new-onset SI and accounted for approximately two-thirds of cases of SI in the top strata (quintile) of predicted risk. Greater engagement in health promoting behavior and social well-being were most important in predicting reduced SI risk, with several change-based predictors of SI identified but stronger associations observed for static as compared to change-based indicator sets as a whole.

CONCLUSIONS: Findings support the value of considering veterans' broader well-being in identifying individuals at risk for suicidal ideation and suggest the possibility that well-being promotion efforts may be useful in reducing suicide risk. Findings also highlight the need for additional attention to change-based predictors to better understand their potential value in identifying individuals at risk for SI.