Intermediate Grade Prostate Cancer and Risk for Adverse Pathology Radical Prostatectomy: Implications for Partial Gland Ablation Case Selection.

PURPOSE: Using nationally representative data, we determined the likelihood of adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy (RP) to better inform case selection for partial gland ablation (PGA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified men with clinically localized GG2 (n = 106,048) and GG3 (n = 55,488) prostate cancer on biopsy from 2010 through 2019 who subsequently underwent RP. Men with GG2 were stratified as unfavorable and favorable per NCCN guidelines. RP adverse pathology was defined as upgrading to GG4-5, pT3-4, or nodal involvement (pN1), respectively. Logistic regression determined factors associated with adverse pathology, and the Cochran-Armitage Test was used to evaluate temporal trends.

RESULTS: Men with biopsy GG3 vs. GG2 experienced significant upgrading (11.3% vs. 3.6%, P < .001), more EPE (26.9% vs. 21.1%), SVI (11.9% vs. 5.3%), and pN1 (4.3% vs. 1.6%), all P < .001. When comparing unfavorable vs. favorable GG2, men experienced more EPE (25.3% vs. 16.5%), SVI (7.2% vs. 3%), and pN1 (2.2% vs. 0.8%), all P < .001. In adjusted analysis, age, Hispanic race, PSA > 10 ng/mL, and ≥ 50% positive biopsy cores were associated with adverse pathology (all P < .001). The likelihood of RP adverse pathology for men with biopsy GG3 increased significantly during the study period from 38.8% in 2010 to 47.3% in 2019 (P < .001).

CONCLUSION: Approximately 40% of men with GG3 and more than 30% with unfavorable GG2 prostate cancer harbor adverse pathology that may not be curable by PGA. Given MRI often understages prostate cancer, our findings have significant implications for optimizing PGA case selection and cancer control outcomes.