Impact of a negative confirmatory biopsy on risk of disease progression among men on active surveillance for prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Most prostate cancer active surveillance (AS) protocols suggest a confirmatory biopsy within 12 to 18 months of diagnosis to mitigate the risk of unsampled high-grade disease. We investigate whether the results of confirmatory biopsy impact AS outcomes and could be used to tailor surveillance intensity.

METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed our institutional database of prostate cancer patients managed by AS from 1997 to 2019 who underwent confirmatory biopsy and ≥3 biopsies overall. Biopsy progression was defined as either an increase in grade group or an increase in the proportion of positive biopsy cores to >34% and was compared between patients with a negative vs positive confirmatory biopsy using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS: We identified 452 patients meeting inclusion criteria for this analysis, of whom 169 (37%) had a negative confirmatory biopsy. With a median follow-up of 6.8 years, 37% of patients progressed to treatment, most commonly due to biopsy progression. A negative confirmatory biopsy was significantly associated with biopsy progression-free survival in multivariable analysis (HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.34-0.88, P = 0.013), adjusting for known clinical and pathologic factors, including use of mpMRI prior to confirmatory biopsy. Negative confirmatory biopsy was also associated with an increased risk of adverse pathologic features at prostatectomy but not with biochemical recurrence among men who ultimately underwent definitive treatment.

CONCLUSIONS: A negative confirmatory biopsy is associated with a lower risk of biopsy progression. While the increased risk of adverse pathology at time of definitive treatment sounds a small cautionary note regarding decreasing surveillance intensity, the majority of such patients have a favorable outcome on AS.