Potential distribution of Leptotrombidium scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces, China, and its association with mite-borne disease transmission.

BACKGROUND: Leptotrombidium scutellare is one of the six main vectors of scrub typhus in China and is a putative vector of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). This mite constitutes a large portion of the chigger mite community in southwest China. Although empirical data on its distribution are available for several investigated sites, knowledge of the species' association with human well-being and involvement in the prevalence of mite-borne diseases remains scarce.

METHODS: Occurrence data on the chigger mite were obtained from 21 years (2001-2021) of field sampling. Using boosted regression tree (BRT) ecological models based on climate, land cover and elevation variables, we predicted the environmental suitability for L. scutellare in Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces. The potential distribution range and shifts in the study area for near-current and future scenarios were mapped and the scale of L. scutellare interacting with human activities was evaluated. We tested the explanatory power of the occurrence probability of L. scutellare on incidences of mite-borne diseases.

RESULTS: Elevation and climate factors were the most important factors contributing to the prediction of the occurrence pattern of L. scutellare. The most suitable habitats for this mite species were mainly concentrated around high-elevation areas, with predictions for the future showing a trend towards a reduction. Human activity was negatively correlated with the environmental suitability of L. scutellare. The occurrence probability of L. scutellare in Yunnan Province had a strong explanatory power on the epidemic pattern of HFRS but not scrub typhus.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results emphasize the exposure risks introduced by L. scutellare in the high-elevation areas of southwest China. Climate change may lead to a range contraction of this species towards areas of higher elevation and lessen the associated exposure risk. A comprehensive understanding of the transmission risk requires more surveillance efforts.