Construction and validation of a nomogram of risk factors and cancer-specific survival prognosis for combined lymphatic metastases in patients with early-onset colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the risk and prognostic factors of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) and to develop nomograms for quantitatively predicting LNM and the cancer-specific survival (CSS).

METHODS: A total of 22,405 EO-CRC patients were included in this study using the SEER database from 2010 to 2017. Logistic and Cox regression were used to identify risk and the potential prognostic factors, respectively, for EO-CRC with LNM. Subsequently, nomograms regarding the risk of LNM in EO-CRC patients and its corresponding CSS were constructed based on these factors. The discriminative ability, calibration and clinical usefulness of the nomograms were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS: T-stage and pathological grade were the most represented factors in the predicted LNM nomogram, while histological type and combined distant metastases were the most represented in the nomogram for CSS in EO-CRC patients with LNM (all P < 0.05). The nomogram constructed based on the prognostic factors screened by Cox regression had good performance with C-index of 0.807 and 0.802 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve showed that the nomograms' predictions were in line with actual observations. Additionally, the ROC curves indicated good discrimination, and the DCA curves implied significant clinical utility of the nomograms.

CONCLUSION: The nomograms we constructed have significant performance in predicting the incidence and prognosis of LNM in EO-CRC patients, which may help clinicians to make better treatment decision making.