Incidence and Predictors of Aspiration Pneumonia Among Stroke Patients in Western Amhara Region, North-West Ethiopia: A Retrospective Follow Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Aspiration pneumonia is one of the major complications among hospitalized stroke patients, with global incidence ranging from 5-83% and hospital mortality rate of up to 70%. This study aimed to assess the incidence and identify predictors of aspiration pneumonia among stroke patients in Western Amhara region, North-West Ethiopia.

METHODS: An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on a simple random sample of 568 stroke patients in Western Amhara region admitted at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital. Log binomial regression model, a generalized linear model with log link, was applied to identify significant predictors of aspiration pneumonia.

RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of aspiration pneumonia among the 568 sampled patients was 23.06%. Males were 1.71 times more at risk to acquire aspiration pneumonia than females (ARR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.07-2.74). Patients with vomiting and dysphagia were at more risk of acquiring aspiration pneumonia as compared with patients without vomiting and dysphagia (ARR = 1.81, 95% CI 1.04-3.14 and ARR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.10-3.48, respectively). Patients who received antibiotic prophylaxis and patients with Glasgow Coma Scale greater than 12 had less risk of acquiring aspiration pneumonia as compared with those who did not receive antibiotic prophylaxis and patients with Glasgow Coma Scale less than 8 (ARR = 0.10, 95% CI 0.04-0.28 and ARR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.22-0.94, respectively).

CONCLUSION: The cumulative incidence of aspiration pneumonia among sampled patients was 23.06%. Vomiting, dysphagia, antibiotic treatment and Glasgow Coma Scale showed significant correlation with the acquiring of aspiration pneumonia. Therefore, we recommend health-care providers should give special attention for patients with these risk factors to prevent aspiration pneumonia.