Estimating long-term outcomes in classic Hodgkin lymphoma: a United States population-based oncology simulation model based on overall survival from the ECHELON-1 trial.

The six-year ECHELON-1 update showed a survival advantage for frontline (1 L) A + AVD (brentuximab vedotin, doxorubicin, vinblastine, dacarbazine) vs ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, dacarbazine) for stage III/IV classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). As clinical trials have limited ability to track patients for extended periods, we developed an oncology simulation model using ECHELON-1 data to estimate population-based cHL outcomes in the US over 10 years (through 2031). The model included a scenario without (64.5% ABVD, 35.5% PET-adapted ABVD utilization) and scenarios with 1 L A + AVD (27%-80%k utilization). At 27%-80% A + AVD utilization, the model estimated 13.6%-31.7% fewer deaths, 2.4%-6.3% more patients ≥5 years progression free, 9.4%-24.4% fewer stem cell transplants (SCTs), and 7.8%-22.5% fewer second cancers over 10 years. These results suggest that the improved outcomes observed in the ECHELON-1 update with A + AVD vs ABVD may translate to more patients alive and fewer with primary relapsed/refractory cHL, SCTs, and second cancers.