Modeling unrelated blood stem cell donor recruitment using simulated registrant cohorts: Assessment of human leukocyte antigen matching across ethnicity groups.

BACKGROUND: Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-matched unrelated donors are not available for some patients considered for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation, particularly among certain ethnic groups. Simulated recruitment modeling can inform efforts to find new matches for more patients.

METHODS: Simulated recruits were generated by assigning a pair of donor HLA haplotypes from historical data files and matched against HLA data of patient searches in the Canadian Blood Services Stem Cell Registry. Recruitment cohorts reflected the proportion of five specific ethnic groups in the 2016 Canadian census data.

RESULTS: Novel 8/8 HLA matches between simulated recruits and patients increased linearly with larger recruitment cohorts. The proportion of novel 8/8 HLA matches from Caucasian, Hispanic, and Native American/First Nations recruits was equal to or greater than their relative proportion in the recruited cohort (match to: recruit ratio (MRR) ≥ 1). In contrast, African American and Asian & Pacific Islander recruits represented a smaller proportion of novel matches relative to their percentage of the recruited cohort (MRR <1). The proportion of novel 7/8 HLA-matches from each ethnic group was approximately the same as their proportion in the recruited cohort (MRR ~ 1) and high rates of 7/8 HLA-matching already exist within the Canadian Blood Services registry for all ethnic groups.

CONCLUSION: Continued large recruitment cohorts are needed to add new 8/8 HLA matches to registry inventories. Likelihoods of novel HLA matches varied across ethnic groups, reflecting varied HLA haplotype frequencies across groups. Simulated cohort modeling can inform recruitment strategies that will generate new donor options for patients.