Prognostic nomogram and treatment efficacy analysis for vaginal cancer: A SEER database and external validation study.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the prognosis and treatment decisions for patients with vaginal cancer through a large retrospective cohort study, in order to assist clinicians to evaluate the condition and choose treatment methods.

METHODS: This was a retrospective study analyzed with Cox regression, nomogram, and external validation. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used for comparative analysis of various treatment modalities.

RESULTS: A total of 6650 cases of vaginal cancer diagnosed between 2000 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and 106 cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2021 from Fujian Cancer Hospital were identified. Young age, early FIGO (the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics) stage, well-differentiated, squamous and adenocarcinoma, first primary malignancy, married, undergoing surgery, and chemoradiotherapy were good independent prognostic factors (P < 0.001). The internal and external validation concordance indices were 0.7102 and 0.7785, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy significantly improved survival in patients with vaginal cancer. Forest plots suggest that radiotherapy combined with surgery was superior to radiotherapy alone (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: We established a specific nomogram to predict vaginal cancer prognosis. Surgery combined with external beam radiation plus brachytherapy may be the most recommended treatment option.